城市温室气体排放推演及其评估方法  

Assessing the Projections of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emission

作　　者：张涵 常政威[2] 鲁刚 魏阳 张颉[2] 陈玉敏 朱锐 ZHANG Han;CHANG Zheng-wei;LU Gang;WEI Yang;ZHANG Jie;CHEN Yu-min;ZHU Rui(Power Internet of Things Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company Electric Power Research Institute;Power Internet of Things Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company;State Grid Energy and Power System Planning Laboratory,State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.;State Grid Suining Electric Power Supply Company)

机构地区：[1]电力物联网四川省重点实验室,国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 [2]电力物联网四川省重点实验室,国网四川省电力公司 [3]国网能源电力规划实验室,国网能源研究院有限公司 [4]国网四川省电力公司遂宁供电公司

出　　处：《标准科学》2024年第S01期170-179,共10页Standard Science

摘　　要：气候变化已成为人类可持续发展面临的重大挑战。为应对这一紧迫问题,世界各国相继制定了温室气体减排计划和碳中和时间表。随着全球气候变化对城市温室气体排放管理需求的不断增加,城市温室气体排放推演及其评估方法日益受到重视。这些方法通过模拟未来城市的温室气体排放趋势,使政府、企业和各部门能够更好地了解城市如何通过低碳转型应对气候变化并推动可持续发展,从而在实现气候目标方面发挥关键作用。然而,尽管这些方法在气候行动规划中愈加重要,国际上依然缺乏统一的标准和方法论,这使得各城市在评估其气候行动计划和能源转型策略的有效性时面临挑战。为此,本文提出并探讨了一套标准化的城市温室气体排放推演与评估方法,旨在为全球城市提供统一的技术指南。该方法涵盖数据收集、模型选择、情景定义与评估指标等关键环节。通过对两个典型城市的案例研究,本文验证了该标准方法的适用性和有效性,展示了其在支持全球城市低碳转型和气候行动中的重要作用。这一标准化方法的推广将为全球城市的气候治理和可持续发展提供坚实的技术基础,为标准研制提供有力支撑。Climate change has become a major challenge to human sustainable development.In response to this urgent issue,countries around the world have successively formulated plans for greenhouse gas emission reduction and carbon neutrality timelines.As global climate change drives the increasing need for managing urban greenhouse gas emissions,the methods for projecting and assessing urban greenhouse gas emissions have garnered growing attention.These methods,by simulating future urban greenhouse gas emission trends,enable governments,businesses,and various sectors to better understand how cities can adopt low-carbon transitions to combat climate change and promote sustainable development,thereby playing a crucial role in achieving climate goals.However,despite their growing importance in climate action planning,there is still a notable lack of international standardized frameworks and methodologies,posing challenges for cities when evaluating the effectiveness of their climate action plans and energy transition strategies.To address this,this paper proposes and discusses a standardized method for urban greenhouse gas emission projection and assessment,aimed at providing a unified technical guide for cities globally.The method encompasses key aspects such as data collection,model selection,scenario definition,and evaluation metrics.Through case studies of two typical cities,the paper validates the applicability and effectiveness of this standardized approach,demonstrating its important role in supporting global urban low-carbon transitions and climate action.The promotion of this standardized method will provide a solid technical foundation for global urban climate governance and sustainable development.

关 键 词：城市温室气体排放 标准化方法 低碳转型 数据集成分析 气候行动评估 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]