基于Logistic回归分析建立慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的预测模型  

Establishing a prediction model for chronic suppurative otitis media with hearing loss based on logistic regression analysis

作　　者：汪园园 杨峰[1] WANG Yuanyuan;YANG Feng(Department of Otolaryngology,Chizhou Second People′s Hospital,Chizhou 247000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]池州市第二人民医院耳鼻喉科,安徽池州247000

出　　处：《皖南医学院学报》2024年第5期457-460,共4页Journal of Wannan Medical College

基　　金：安徽高校自然科学研究项目(KJ2021C0138)。

摘　　要：目的:基于Logistic回归分析构建慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的预测模型。方法:选取2019年1月~2021年12月池州市第二人民医院收治的慢性化脓性中耳炎患者作为研究对象,依据听力损失发生情况分为听力损失组(n=117)和非听力损失组(n=102),使用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的危险因素,并据此建立Logistic回归预测模型。结果:单因素分析显示,两组患者临床分类、慢性鼻窦炎、鼓室积脓和耳鸣障碍指数(THI)评分差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,活动期、慢性鼻窦炎、鼓室积脓和THI评分高是慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。模型验证结果显示,C-index为0.782(95%CI:0.748~0.816),校准曲线趋近于理想曲线,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.774(95%CI:0.743~0.805),在0%~66%内,模型净获益值>0。结论:活动期、慢性鼻窦炎、鼓室积脓和THI评分高会增加慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的风险,根据危险因素构建的Logistic回归模型能有效预测慢性化脓性中耳炎合并听力损失的风险。Objective:To develop a prediction model for chronic suppurative otitis media(CSOM)with hearing loss based on logistic regression analysis.Methods:CSOM patients admitted to our hospital were included from January 2019 to December 2021,and divided into hearing loss group(n=117)and non-hearing loss group(n=102)based on the occurrence of hearing loss.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for CSOM with hearing loss,and a prediction model was then established.Results:Univariate analysis showed that the clinical classification,chronic sinusitis,tympanic abscess and tinnitus handicap index(THI)score were significantly different between the two groups of patients(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that active phase,chronic sinusitis,tympanic abscess and THI score≥38 were independent risk factors for CSOM with hearing loss(P<0.05).The model validation results showed that the C-index was 0.782(95%CI:0.748-0.816),the calibration curve approached the ideal curve,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.774(95%CI:0.743-0.805).Within the range of 0%-66%,the net benefit value of the model was greater than 0.Conclusion:Active phase,chronic sinusitis,tympanic abscess and high THI score may increase the risk of CSOM with hearing loss,and the logistic regression model constructed based on these risk factors can effectively predict the risks.

关 键 词：慢性化脓性中耳炎 听力损失 危险因素 LOGISTIC回归分析 

分 类 号：R764.21[医药卫生—耳鼻咽喉科]