三北防护林的长期经济效益——基于空间断点的研究  

Long-term Economic Benefits of Three-North Shelter Forest Program:A Study Based on Spatial Regression Discontinuity

作　　者：王文凯 毕钰 Wang Wenkai;Bi Yu(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2024年第5期180-197,共18页Economic Science

基　　金：首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“创新驱动政策的实施效果和引领作用”(项目编号:XRZ2023056);中国社会科学院国情调研重大项目“数字经济和实体经济深度融合调研”(项目编号:2024GQZD006);中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(项目编号:DF2023ZD21)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：三北防护林工程主要有两个目标:生态效益和经济效益。现有研究多集中于三北防护林的生态效益,而对经济效益还缺乏来自经济学视角的严格分析。本文使用空间断点回归方法,利用2010年夜间灯光数据进行实证检验,发现三北防护林实现了长期的经济效益。具体来说,相比三北防护林边界外的县市,三北防护林对边界内100公里的县市经济发展具有显著的促进作用,其大小换算成GDP年均增速约为0.57%。一系列稳健性检验和安慰剂检验均支持上述结论。同时,成本收益分析表明,三北防护林的经济效益远大于成本,从而其大幅度改善了总体社会福利,实现了环境保护和经济发展的双赢。机制分析发现,三北防护林工程显著促进了第一产业的发展。The Three-North Shelter Forest Program has two main objectives:ecological benefits and economic benefits.Existing literature on the economic benefits of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program still lacks analysis from a strict economic perspective.Using the method of spatial regression discontinuity and the night-light data,this paper finds that the Three-North Shelter Forest Program has long-term economic benefits.Specifically,compared with the counties and cities outside the boundary of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program,it has a significant promo-ting effect on the economic development of the counties and cities within 100 km of the bounda-ry,which is translated into an average annual GDP growth rate of 0.57%.A series of robustness tests and placebo tests supported this conclusion.The cost-benefit analysis shows that the eco-nomic benefits of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program were far greater than the costs,so the overall social welfare has been greatly improved,and the win-win situation of environmental pro-tection and economic development has been realized.Mechanism analysis shows that the Three-North Shelter Forest Program significantly promoted the development of the primary industry.

关 键 词：三北防护林 长期经济效益 空间断点 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F323