1990—2021年中国归因于饮食因素的缺血性心脏病疾病负担变化趋势及预测研究  

Trend and Prediction of Changes in the Disease Burden of Diet-related Ischemic Heart Disease in China,1990-2021

作　　者：吴霞 张译匀 姚承志 赵湘铃 熊文婧 让蔚清[1] WU Xia;ZHANG Yiyun;YAO Chengzhi;ZHAO Xiangling;XIONG Wenjing;RANG Weiqing(School of Public Health,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学公共卫生学院,湖南省衡阳市421001 [2]南华大学附属第一医院,湖南省衡阳市421001

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2025年第3期305-312,共8页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：2019年度湖南省芙蓉教学名师专项基金(201RFS001)。

摘　　要：背景缺血性心脏病(IHD)是导致中国居民疾病负担的第二大原因,饮食因素干预被认为是减少疾病负担有效及可行的措施。目的分析1990—2021年中国归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担变化及未来变化趋势,以期为中国IHD的饮食防治提供参考。方法提取2021年全球疾病负担(GBD 2021)数据库中1990—2021年中国、全球、不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区的归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担相关数据,应用Joinpoint模型计算年度变化百分比(APC)及平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),分析1990—2021年中国、全球、不同SDI地区归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担,中国不同性别、年龄人群归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担以及归因于不同类型饮食因素的IHD疾病负担。利用贝叶斯年龄时期队列(BAPC)模型预测2022—2031年中国归因于饮食因素的IHD标化死亡率、标化伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率变化趋势。结果2021年中国归因于饮食因素的IHD标化死亡率为44.26/10万、标化DALY率为820.87/10万,与全球水平接近,高于高SDI地区,低于其余4类SDI地区。1990—2021年中国归因于饮食因素的IHD标化死亡率(AAPC=-0.17%,P<0.001)、标化DALY率(AAPC=-0.50%,P<0.001)与全球及五类SDI地区一致,均呈现下降趋势,全球下降幅度明显高于中国,高SDI地区下降速度最快。1990年与2021年中国男性归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担均高于女性;1990—2021年中国男性归因于饮食因素的IHD标化死亡率(AAPC=0.25%,P<0.001)呈上升趋势,女性标化死亡率(AAPC=-0.71%,P<0.001)、标化DALY率(AAPC=-1.23%,P<0.001)均呈下降趋势。1990与2021年中国归因于饮食因素的IHD疾病负担随着年龄增长呈上升趋势,≥70岁人群的死亡率、DALY率最高;1990—2021年50~69岁人群死亡率、DALY率呈下降趋势,而15~49岁、≥70岁人群呈上升趋势(P<0.001)。1990年与2021年归因于13种饮食因素的IHD标化死亡率、标化DALY率排名前两位的饮食因素均是�Background Ischemic heart disease(IHD)is the second leading cause of disease burden in the Chinese population,and dietary factors are considered as effective and feasible approaches to reduce the disease burden.Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2021 and future trends in China,aiming to provide a reference basis for dietary prevention and treatment of IHD in China.Methods Data related to the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China,worldwide,and regions with varied socio-demographic index(SDI)from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021(GBD 2021)database.Using the Joinpoint model,the annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC)were calculated to analyze the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China,worldwide,and regions with varied SDI.Furthermore,the model evaluated the diet-ralated disease burden by gender and age groups in China,as well as the burden of disease attributable to specific dietary factors within the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021.Additionally,the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the standardized mortality rate and the standardized disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 2022 to 2031.Results In 2021,the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China were 44.26/100000 and 820.87/100000,respectively,which were close to the global levels,but higher than those of high SDI regions and lower than the remaining four categories of SDI regions.From 1990 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate(AAPC=-0.17%,P<0.001)and the standardized DALY rate(AAPC=-0.50%,P<0.001)of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China showed a decreased trend,which were consistent with the global trend and those in the five categories of SDI regions.The global decrease was significantly higher than that in China,with the fastest decrease in the

关 键 词：心肌缺血 缺血性心脏病 全球疾病负担 饮食因素 趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R542.2[医药卫生—心血管疾病]