盘点气候风险机遇,展望健康繁荣未来  

Taking stock of climate action for a healthy and thriving future

作　　者：张诗卉[1] 张弛[2] 蔡闻佳[1] 白玉琪[1] Max Callaghan 常楠 陈彬[5] 陈慧琪 程亮亮 戴瀚程 代鑫 范维澄[8,9] 房小怡 高仝 耿阳[12] 关大博 胡艺馨 华峻翊 黄存瑞 黄弘[8,9] 黄建斌[1] 黄小猛[1] 纪思翰 蒋俏蕾 姜晓朋 Gregor Kiesewetter 李湉湉[19] 梁璐 林波荣[12] 林华亮 刘欢[21] 刘起勇[22] 刘小波[22] 刘钊 刘竹 刘昱甫 陆波[24] 鲁晨曦[1,25] 罗震宇 马伟 米志付 任超 Marina Romanello 沈鉴翔 苏婧 孙语泽 孙昕璐 汤绪 Maria Walawender 王灿 王情[19] 汪蕊[1] Laura Warnecke 魏汪宇 文三妹 谢杨 熊辉 徐冰 颜钰[26] 杨秀 姚芳虹[36] 俞乐 袁嘉灿[31,32] 曾仪娉 张镜 张璐 张锐 张尚辰[1] 张少辉 赵梦真 郑大山 周浩 周景博[39] 周子乔 罗勇 宫鹏[40] Shihui Zhang;Chi Zhang;Wenjia Cai;Yuqi Bai;Max Callaghan;Nan Chang;Bin Chen;Huiqi Chen;Liangliang Cheng;Hancheng Dai;Xin Dai;Weicheng Fan;Xiaoyi Fang;Tong Gao;Yang Geng;Dabo Guan;Yixin Hu;Junyi Hua;Cunrui Huang;Hong Huang;Jianbin Huang;Xiaomeng Huang;John SJi;Qiaolei Jiang;Xiaopeng Jiang;Gregor Kiesewetter;Tiantian Li;Lu Liang;Borong Lin;Hualiang Lin;Huan Liu;Qiyong Liu;Xiaobo Liu;Zhao Liu;Zhu Liu;Yufu Liu;Bo Lu;Chenxi Lu;Zhenyu Luo;Wei Ma;Zhifu Mi;Chao Ren;Marina Romanello;Jianxiang Shen;Jing Su;Yuze Sun;Xinlu Sun;Xu Tang;Maria Walawender;Can Wang;Qing Wang;Rui Wang;Laura Warnecke;Wangyu Wei;Sanmei Wen;Yang Xie;Hui Xiong;Bing Xu;Yu Yan;Xiu Yang;Fanghong Yao;Le Yu;Jiacan Yuan;Yiping Zeng;Jing Zhang;Lu Zhang;Rui Zhang;Shangchen Zhang;Shaohui Zhang;Mengzhen Zhao;Dashan Zheng;Hao Zhou;Jingbo Zhou;Ziqiao Zhou;Yong Luo;Gong Peng(Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081 China;Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,Berlin 10829,Germany;School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Meteorological Impact and Risk Research Center,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100086,China;School of Business,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250013,China;School of Architecture,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Statistics and Data Science,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of International Affairs and Public Administration,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;Vank

机构地区：[1]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084 [2]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081 [3]Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,Berlin 10829,Germany [4]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166 [5]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [6]中山大学公共卫生学院,广州510080 [7]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [8]清华大学公共安全研究所,北京100084 [9]清华大学工程物理系,北京100084 [10]中国气象科学研究院气象影响与风险研究中心,北京100086 [11]山东师范大学商学院,济南250013 [12]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084 [13]南方科技大学统计与数据科学系,深圳518055 [14]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院,青岛266003 [15]清华大学万科公共卫生学院,北京100084 [16]清华大学新闻与传播学院,北京100084 [17]世界卫生组织驻华代表处,北京100600 [18]Pollution Management Research Group,Energy,Climate,and Environment Program,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA),Laxenburg 1-A-2361,Austria [19]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,环境健康风险评估室,北京102206 [20]Department of Landscape Architecture&Environmental Planning,University of California,Berkeley CA 94607,USA [21]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [22]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,传染病预防控制国家重点实验室,北京102206 [23]北京经济管理职业学院临空经济管理学院,北京100102 [24]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [25]Geography,College of Life and Environmental Sciences,University of Exeter,Exeter EX12LU,UK [26]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系,济南250002 [27]The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction,University College London,London WC1H 0AL,UK [28]香港大学建筑学院,中国香港999077 [29]Institute for Global Health,University College London,Londo

出　　处：《科学通报》2024年第27期4005-4011,共7页Chinese Science Bulletin

摘　　要：气候变化带来的健康风险与日俱增,煤炭消费及相关碳排放量的反弹,再度敲响了中国气候变化警钟.2022年,中国面临了严峻的气候挑战.极端天气事件发生的频率和强度不断上升,许多地区气温纪录屡创新高,全国平均气温攀升至历史第二高位,同时降水量自2012年以来创新低,南方地区遭遇夏秋连旱,而湖南和东北地区则出现了极端降雨和洪涝灾害.采取及时、充分的措施不仅能减轻气候变化对健康的影响,还将保护基础设施不被极端天气破坏.Human health is inextricably linked to climate change,as the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events,such as heatwaves,floods,and hurricanes pose direct and indirect threats to human life and well-being.The first round of the Global Stocktake(GST)in 2023 will provide a systematic inventory of actions to address climate change,and guidance for identifying and implementing interventions that prioritize health considerations.The 2023 China Report of the Lancet Countdown,led by Tsinghua University with contributions from 76 experts from 26 leading global institutions,continues to track progress on health and climate change in China through 28 indicators across five domains.These domains encompass a wide spectrum,from the climate change impacts,exposures,and vulnerability(Section 1),to different elements of actions including adaption(Section 2),mitigation and their health implications(Section 3),economics and finance(Section 4),and public and political engagement(Section 5).We selected the most urgent and relevant indicators to compilea policy brief that provides a comprehensive understanding of recent progress on climate change and health in China.This report is the fourth China Lancet Countdown report,pays particular attention to the impacts on the health risks arising from human-induced climate change(Panel 2),and production-and consumption-based CO_(2) and PM2.5 emissions(indicator 4.2.4),indicating the urgency for mitigation by identifying human contribution to carbon emissions and climate change.In addition,we found that the record-breaking heat and drought of 2022 were associated with increased adverse health outcomes.Wildfire exposure increased by 54%compared to the historical baseline,while heatwave-related mortality increased by 342%,heat-related work loss increased by 24%,safe outdoor physical activity loss increased by 67%and the resulting hours available for safe outdoor activities decreased by 9.6%.Human-caused climate change was responsible for 49.4%of heatwave-related mortality,30.9

关 键 词：煤炭消费 极端天气事件 基础设施 气候变化 极端降雨 碳排放量 气候风险 盘点 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] P467[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]