混凝土结构低碳近似概率设计法探索  

Exploration of low-carbon approximate probability design method for concrete structures

作　　者：肖建庄[1,2,3,4] 关湘烁 夏冰 丁陶[1] 王元丰[5] 肖绪文[1] Jianzhuang Xiao;Xiangshuo Guan;Bing Xia;Tao Ding;Yuanfeng Wang;Xuwen Xiao(College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;College of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Green Construction Research Center,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Institute of Science and Technology for Carbon Peak&Neutrality,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Carbon Neutralization Technology and Strategy Research Center,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092 [2]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁530004 [3]同济大学绿色建造研究中心,上海200092 [4]广西大学双碳科学与技术研究院,南宁530004 [5]北京交通大学碳中和科技与战略中心,北京100044

出　　处：《科学通报》2024年第27期4137-4150,共14页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(51325802);上海市科技计划(22dz1207300)资助。

摘　　要：为应对国家“双碳”目标与建筑业低碳发展挑战,探索并提出了一套以概率理论为基础、以分项系数表达的混凝土结构低碳设计实用方法.面向碳中和目标,建立了低碳极限状态方程,定义了低碳指标以度量混凝土结构满足碳排放限值的水准.依据碳排放的不确定性特点,定义了“恒碳”“活碳”,分别在结构隐含碳与建筑全寿命碳边界内厘清2种低碳设计范式,引入碳排放分项系数将概率化设计简化为基于确定性碳排放评价结果的“近似概率设计法”.开展案例试算,将中国碳中和目标分解为混凝土结构碳排放限值,展示建筑类型对碳排放分项系数的影响特点.结果表明,碳排放分项系数与“恒碳”“活碳”变异性大小、所占比例直接相关,在10–1误差范围内,不同建筑类型有望采取统一分项系数,如目标低碳失效概率为0.05时,“恒碳”和“活碳”分项系数可分别取1.1和1.8.引入3类影响系数,以匹配不同建筑类型碳排放限值的差异化分配需求,适应不同地区、不同碳排放调控情景下的发展需求,助力我国建筑业低碳转型.With the world increasing concerns about climate change and environmental protection,reducing carbon emissions has become a crucial issue for various industries.With industrial development and rapid urbanization leading to a surge in energy demand,China’s building-related carbon emissions have escalated in recent years.By 2020,the carbon emissions from construction industry accounted for a significant 50.9%of the total emissions nationwide.Concrete structures account for more than 60%of the total building stock in China,calling for the adoption of low-carbon design methods in concrete structures.Drawing upon the safety design process,this paper introduces a practical low-carbon probabilistic design approach.This method aims to facilitate engineering decision-making that meets the carbon reduction targets quantitatively,thus fostering sustainable development within the construction industry.By exploring the randomness inherent in carbon emissions,a low-carbon limit state equation was developed.To assess the level of concrete structures to meet carbon reduction targets,the concept of‘low-carbon index’was introduced.This paper also distinguished between‘permanent carbon’and‘variable carbon’based on their sources.The former includes carbon emission from structural materials at the materialization stage and the end-of-life stage,while the latter encompasses operational carbon and embodied carbon from decorative materials and maintenance materials.Within these boundaries,two distinct low-carbon design paradigms were clarified:One focusing on structural embodied carbon and the other addressing whole life carbon in buildings.Considering the uncertainty of carbon emissions,the partial factor was introduced to simplify the probabilistic design into approximate probability design criteria.The carbon limits of concrete structures were deduced by a case study.Using Monte Carlo simulations,China’s future building stock was predicted based on probabilistic predictions of population,urbanization rate,and uncertai

关 键 词：混凝土结构 低碳设计 近似概率设计 碳排放分项系数 碳排放限值 

分 类 号：TU37[建筑科学—结构工程] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]