通用型水库洪水全过程预演仿真模型构建技术  

Technologies for building a general whole-process flood rehearsal simulation model for reservoirs

作　　者：侯文昂 杜镇瀚 阎志坤 张士辰[1,2] 尹江珊 黄健峰 Hou Wen’ang;Du Zhenhan;Yan Zhikun;Zhang Shichen;Yin Jiangshan;Huang Jianfeng

机构地区：[1]水利部大坝安全管理中心,南京210029 [2]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第19期52-59,共8页China Water Resources

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005400);国家自然科学基金(41671504);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y724007、Y724001)。

摘　　要：水库洪水全过程预演仿真模拟是水利工程防灾减灾领域的重要研究方向,模型是支撑预演仿真模拟的核心,也是构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵重要的支撑技术。从水库洪水灾害链演化过程出发,围绕上游洪水形成过程、库坝区洪水控制过程以及下游洪水演进过程三个阶段,从水库上游的水文产汇流模拟,坝址区域的水库洪水调度模拟、大坝安全性态综合模拟、溃坝过程模拟,以及水库下游的洪水演进模拟、致灾后果分析等角度出发,探讨了各环节的研究近况,梳理了当前各环节模型构建的主要技术和存在问题。围绕当前构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵中对洪水预演仿真模型的需求和建设现状,总结分析了目前平台模型构建运用过程中存在的模型整体性规划不足、缺乏模型和模拟标准、各模型衔接困难等问题。结合工程实践,从加强顶层设计、统一建设标准、模型计算微服务部署等方面提出平台模型构建建议,并对下一步研究进行了展望。Whole-process flood rehearsal simulation for reservoirs is a critical research area in disaster prevention and reduction for water conservancy projects.Models are essential for supporting the simulations and serve as a key technology for constructing a modern reservoir operation and management matrix.Focusing on the evolution process of reservoir flood disaster chain,this study examines three stages:upstream flood formation,flood control in the reservoir dam area,and downstream flood evolution.It explores the current state of research in hydrological runoff simulation for upstream areas,reservoir flood dispatching simulation at dam sites,comprehensive dam safety simulations,dam-break process simulations,and downstream flood routing and disaster consequence analysis.The study summarizes the key technologies and problems in model construction at each stage.Addressing the needs and challenges in building modern reservoir flood rehearsal simulation models,the study identifies issues such as insufficient overall planning,a lack of standardization,and difficulties in model integration.Recommendations are made for strengthening top-level design,unifying construction standards,and deploying model computation micro services.Future research directions are also discussed.

关 键 词：库坝工程 洪水预演仿真模拟 洪水全过程 大坝安全 洪水演进 现代化水库运行管理矩阵 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程] TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]