开放条件下的双支柱调控效应:跨国实证研究  

The Two-pillar Regulatory Effects Under Open Conditions:A Cross-Country Empirical Study

作　　者：马勇[1] 郭锐 章洪铭 MA Yong;GUO Rui;ZHANG Hongming(School of Finance/China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China;Institute of Chinese Finance Studies,Southwest University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,中国财政金融政策研究中心,北京100872 [2]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,四川成都611130 [3]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第6期20-39,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA044)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于全球95个经济体1990—2020年的非平衡面板数据,系统考察了经济开放、金融开放对双支柱政策调控效应的影响。实证结果表明:(1)从主效应的角度,双支柱政策确实能够在产出稳定、物价稳定、信贷稳定和资产价格稳定上发挥逆周期调控作用,从而促进经济和金融体系的共同稳定;(2)从调节效应的角度,随着经济和金融开放程度提高,双支柱政策的调控效应在不同条件下均出现了一定程度的下降。进一步分析表明,在中低程度的开放水平下,双支柱政策通过适度的力度搭配就能实现经济和金融的共同稳定,而在较高的开放水平上,宏观审慎政策面临较强的负向调节效应,需要更大的宏观审慎力度来实现金融稳定。本文结论不仅为理解双支柱政策在开放条件下的调控效应及政策间相互影响提供了一些基础性经验证据,同时启示我们,双支柱政策的实施力度和组合模式的选择,需与一国经济和金融开放程度结合考虑。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),significant progress has been made in deepening financial supply-side structural reforms and institutional financial openness.However,the Western world has intensified frictions in global economic and financial activities by imposing unreasonable tariffs,implementing baseless sanctions,and controlling financial institutions'actions.This has led to a deterioration of the global economic and financial situation,presenting new challenges to China's economic and financial openness.Against this background,on May 14,2020,the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee proposed“to build a new development pattern where domestic and international dual circulations promote each other”,and the 20th National Congress of the CPC emphasized“advancing high-level opening-up”.These developments pose higher demands on current macroeconomic policies,which need to better balance the relationship between economic openness,financial openness,and economic and financial risks.The two-pillar policy,as one of the most important tools in macroeconomic control,plays a crucial role in balancing economic openness,financial openness,and economic and financial risks.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically study the regulatory effects of economic openness,financial openness,and two-pillar policies.While the effectiveness of two-pillar policies has been validated theoretically and supported empirically in some literature,existing studies have not fully discussed the impact of economic and financial openness on the regulatory effects of two-pillar policies,especially from an empirical standpoint.In light of this,this paper conducts an empirical analysis based on panel data from 95 economies from 1990 to 2020,examining the impact of economic and financial openness on the regulatory effects of two-pillar policies and discussing the coordination issues among economic openness,financial openness,and two-pillar policies.The analysis shows that,on the one han

关 键 词：双支柱政策 经济开放 金融开放 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831.6[经济管理—世界经济]