地方政府财政压力与企业违约风险  

Local Government Financial Pressure and Corporate Default Risk

作　　者：梁上坤[1] 王思超 董青 谢志华[2] LIANG Shangkun;WANG Sichao;DONG Qing;XIE Zhihua(School of Accountancy,Central University of Finance and Economics;Business School,Beijing Technology and Business University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学会计学院,北京100081 [2]北京工商大学商学院,北京100048

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第6期78-96,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72272164、71872196);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD145、19ZDA098)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以2003-2020年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,系统性探索地方政府财政压力对企业违约风险的影响、机制与差异。研究发现:(1)地方政府财政压力每增加一个标准差,企业违约风险相较均值上升4.74%;(2)与非国有企业相比,国有企业受到财政压力的影响更强,与“社会功能观”一致,而未支持“资源约束观”;(3)传导机制方面,地方政府通过增收减支转嫁财政压力,企业承压后引发经营行为的变动,最终增加了企业违约风险;(4)企业的资源获取能力和盈利能力,以及地区资源分布和地区经济发展,会显著调节财政压力与违约风险的关系。本文从“上游”的地方政府角度丰富了企业违约风险影响因素的研究,对于理解微观企业风险的形成、差异、传导和防范具有一定参考意义。The exacerbation of financial pressure on local governments leads to a series of adverse consequences,disrupts market development,negatively affects resource allocation,and worsens regional governance.These changes may further impact local governments,increasing their already strained financial pressure and exacerbating their fiscal difficulties.Therefore,alleviating financial pressure and preventing its adverse effects remain essential tasks for current economic development and social stability.Additionally,preventing corporate defaults is crucial for the stability of capital markets and the overall development of the national economy.Currently,research on corporate default risk mostly focuses on micro-level factors from the perspective of individual firms,while studies from an external macro-level perspective are relatively scarce.The research question of whether changes in fiscal pressure from local governments will affect the corporate default risk within their jurisdiction is of great significance in the current context.The process by which local government financial pressure affects corporate default risk can be divided into two stages.Firstly,local governments transfer their pressure to enterprises by increasing revenue and reducing expenditures.Specifically,governments increase tax revenue and non-tax revenue,while reducing subsidies and unnecessary government procurement to alleviate financial pressure.Secondly,after passively bearing the financial pressure from local governments,enterprises experience changes in their fundamental factors.These changes include increased effective tax burden,impacts on investment behavior,increased debt levels,and reduced sales scale,ultimately leading to an increase in default risk.Using Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2020 as the sample,this paper finds that:(1)For every one standard deviation increase in local government financial pressure,corporate default risk increases by 4.74%relative to the mean;(2)Compared to non-state-owned enterprises,state-owned

关 键 词：地方政府 财政压力 企业违约风险 扩大收入 减少支出 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F832.51