离岛免税政策是否促进了旅游业发展?——基于政策历史演进的视角  

Does the Duty-Free Policy for Outlying Islands Promote Tourism Development?——A Perspective Based on the Historical Evolution of the Policy

作　　者：余升国[1] 杨鹏辉 YU Shengguo;YANG Penghui(International Business School of Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学国际商学院,海南海口570228 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《旅游科学》2024年第8期1-25,共25页Tourism Science

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目“碳中和背景下中国式政府主导型治污模式——理论与实证”(722MS044)。

摘　　要：文章厘清了海南离岛免税政策历次调整的内容差异,再基于2010—2020年海南省18个城市的月度数据,实证检验了离岛免税政策对城市接待旅游人数的影响。结果表明,离岛免税政策的前四次及第七次调整对城市接待旅游人数具有显著的正向影响。而在试点初期、第五次及第六次调整,离岛免税政策对城市接待旅游人数具有不显著或负向的影响。进一步分析发现,比起免税品种,免税金额的开放更能促进城市接待旅游人数增长。此外,离岛免税政策对国际旅客的影响要强于国内旅客,先行城市接待旅游人数受离岛免税政策激励的作用会大于其他城市。长期来看,离岛免税店的设立对城市接待旅游人数具有负向影响。上述结论为海南离岛免税政策的未来调整方向及旅游业的发展提供了一些新的启示。This paper first clarified the differences in the content of the previous adjustments of Hainan’s offshore duty-free policy,and then empirically examined the impact of the offshore duty-free policy on the number of city-received tourists based on monthly data from 18 cities and counties in Hainan Province from 2010 to 2020.The results show that the first four and seventh adjustments of the offshore duty-free policy have a significant positive impact on the number of tourists received by cities.In the early,fifth,and sixth adjustments of the pilot program,however,the offshore duty-free policy has a non-significant or negative impact on the number of tourists received by cities.Further analysis reveals that the liberalization of dutyfree amounts promotes the growth of city-received tourism more than the variety of duty-free items.In addition,the impact of the offshore duty-free policy is stronger for international tourists than domestic tourists,and the number of tourist arrivals received by the leading cities will be more stimulated by the offshore duty-free policy than other cities.Finally,in the long run,the establishment of duty-free stores on outlying islands has a negative impact on the number of tourists received by cities.The above findings provide some new insights into the future adjustment direction of Hainan’s offshore duty-free policy and the development of the tourism industry.

关 键 词：离岛免税政策 免税购物 旅游业 海南 实证分析 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]