基于随机动态规划的热带草原气候灌区种植结构优化研究  

Optimization of Irrigation Farming Structure in Tropical Savanna Climatic Based on Stochastic Dynamic Programming

作　　者：张昊[1] 赵升伟 钱俊 毛劲乔[1] 张培培[1] 龚轶青 ZHANG Hao;ZHAO Sheng-wei;QIAN Jun;MAO Jing-qiao;ZHANG Pei-pei;GONG Yi-qing(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;CISPDR Corporation,Wuhan 430014,China;Changjiang International Engineering Design Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]长江设计集团有限公司,武汉430014 [3]长江国际工程设计有限公司,北京100032

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2024年第10期15-21,共7页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：湖北省科技创新人才及服务专项(2022EH B044);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202003251)。

摘　　要：为了降低热带草原气候区域可用水资源不确定性带来的灌区规划风险,合理进行灌区农作物的种植结构分配,从而充分发挥灌区经济效益,结合确定性动态规划及随机规划的优点,建立了基于随机动态规划的热带草原气候灌区种植结构优化模型。以塞内加尔卢加灌区为例,通过分析长系列1987-2016年灌区的灌溉可用水量,建立正态分布概率函数进行概率模拟,将随机动态规划模型应用于卢加灌区并将试验结果与确定性动态规划模型结果进行对比。研究结果表明,随机动态规划模型能够充分考虑灌区灌溉可用水量的不确定性,对灌区种植结构进行合理优化,相较于确定性动态规划的种植结构结果,平均每年增加1.37亿CFA的经济效益;随机动态规划模型的种植结构规划结果能够有效应对干旱等极端气候条件带来的影响,在极端干旱时(如1987年)灌区经济效益较确定性动态规划增加5.33亿CFA,使灌区发挥较高且稳定的经济效益。研究成果有利于灌区制定合理的农田管理和种植决策,为灌区农业经济可持续发展提供科学依据。In order to mitigate the risks associated with the uncertainty of available water resources in tropical grassland climatic regions and allocate the planting structure of crops in irrigation areas effectively,this paper combines the advantages of dynamic programming and stochastic programming and establishes an optimization model for planting structure in irrigation area under the tropical savanna climate based on stochastic dynamic programming.Taking the Luga irrigation area in Senegal as an example,the available irrigation water in the irrigation area from 1986 to 2016 is analyzed.Probability simulation is conducted using the normal distribution probability function.The stochastic dynamic programming model is applied to the Luga irrigation area,and the results are compared with those of the deterministic dynamic programming model.The research results show that the stochastic dynamic programming model can optimize the planting structure in the irrigation area with deterministic dynamic programming in available irrigation water,increasing the economic benefits by an average of 1.37×10^(8)CFA per year.Moreover,it can effectively cope with the impacts of climate change such as drought and can generate an additional economic benefit of 5.33×10^(8)CFA during extreme drought periods,enabling the irrigation area to achieve higher and more stable economic benefits.These research findings contribute to the formulation of rational farmland management and planting decisions in the irrigation area,providing scientific basis for the sustainable development of agricultural economy in the irrigation area.

关 键 词：热带草原气候 灌区 种植结构优化 动态规划 随机动态规划 灌溉可用水量的不确定性 

分 类 号：S2[农业科学—农业工程]