面向复合极端天气的高新能源渗透率电网风险评估技术  

Risk Assessment Techniques for Grids with High Penetration of New Energy Under Extreme Weather Conditions

作　　者：张译心 狄晨烨 赵男 蔡木良 康兵 崔明建 ZHANG Yixin;DI Chenye;ZHAO Nan;CAI Muliang;KANG Bing;CUI Mingjian(School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Electric Power Research Institute,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650214,China;State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Research Institute,Nanchang 330096,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市300072 [2]云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,昆明市650214 [3]国网江西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,南昌市330096 [4]南昌工程学院电气工程学院,南昌市330099

出　　处：《电力建设》2024年第10期34-46,共13页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52207130);江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBE51013)。

摘　　要：通过研究极端天气对电网线路分支影响的量化评估机理,建立极端天气下电力线路故障数学模型,用基于AC的级联故障(cascading failure based on AC,ACCF)模型来捕捉电力系统中输电线路随机失效后的实际功率损耗,采用归一化处理的电网切负荷、节点电压、支路功率越限指标来表征极端天气下电网的多重故障风险。运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对负荷不确定性、风光出力不确定性进行模拟,并对节点电压、支路功率越限风险进行仿真与评估。算例分析表明,所提方法能够有效准确地对不同场景下电网的运行风险进行评估,支撑电网风险专业人员提供预警决策,系统化开展电网风险防控。A mathematical model for power line faults under extreme weather conditions is developed by examining how extreme weather impacts grid line branches.The ACCF model is employed to quantify actual power loss resulting from random transmission line failures in the power system.Metrics such as normalized grid load-shedding,node voltage,and branch power overrun are used to characterize the multiple fault risks of the grid under extreme weather.Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to account for load uncertainty,wind and PV output variability,and to evaluate node voltage and branch power crossing risks.An example analysis shows that the proposed method effectively and accurately assesses operational risks under various scenarios.This approach aids grid risk professionals in making early warning decisions and implementing systematic risk prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：极端天气 源网荷不确定性 电网风险评估 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]