有限理性视角下发电商市场竞争动态行为分析  

Analysis of Dynamic Behavior of Market Competition of Generation Companies from the Perspective of Limited Rationality

作　　者：韩浩博 刘晓峰 刘怀[1] 凌静 季振亚 李峰 HAN Haobo;LIU Xiaofeng;LIU Huai;LING Jing;JI Zhenya;LI Feng(School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;State Grid Zhenjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Zhenjiang 212000,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院,南京市210023 [2]国网江苏省电力有限公司镇江供电分公司,江苏省镇江市212000

出　　处：《电力建设》2024年第10期136-145,共10页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52107100)。

摘　　要：在全球环境保护与可持续发展受到日益重视背景下,减少碳排放成为发电行业亟需解决的问题。因此,探究“双碳”目标下发电商在电力市场中的发电量决策行为,对于推动节能减排具有重要的现实意义。基于有限理性决策调整机制,构建了考虑碳排放的发电商市场竞争非合作博弈模型,讨论了不同理性程度发电商在市场博弈竞争时均衡点的存在性与稳定性,并引入变量反馈控制方法对失稳系统进行控制。通过仿真算例对发电商市场竞争动态行为进行了深入剖析。仿真结果表明各发电商策略调整和碳价变化均会对市场稳定造成影响,当发电商策略调整和碳价设置不合理时,系统进入混沌状态;通过所提出的变量反馈控制法可使系统重新稳定在纳什均衡状态,从而减少各发电商利润不确定性。With increasing attention being paid to global environmental protection and sustainable development,reducing carbon emissions has become a pressing issue in the power generation industry.Therefore,exploring the decision-making behavior of generation companies in the electricity market under the“dual carbon”goal is of immense practical significance for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction.A non-cooperative game model of competition among generation companies was constructed based on the bounded rational decision-adjustment mechanism and considering the carbon emissions.The existence and stability of equilibrium points were discussed when generation companies with different degrees of rationality compete in the market.A variable feedback control method was introduced for the destabilized system.Through simulation examples,in-depth analysis of the dynamic behavior of generation companies’competition in the market was performed.The results show that the strategic adjustment of each generation company and the change in carbon prices affect market stability.When the strategy adjustments of generation companies and carbon pricing are unreasonable,the system enters a chaotic state.The proposed variable feedback control method can stabilize the system in the Nash equilibrium state,thereby reducing the profit uncertainty for each generation company.

关 键 词：发电商 碳配额 有限理性 稳定性 动态行为 混沌控制 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]