极端气温对中国家庭能源贫困的非对称影响研究  

Asymmetric Effects of Extreme Temperature on Household Energy Poverty in China

作　　者：邓明艳 杨丹[1] 刘自敏[1] DENG Ming-yan;YANG Dan;LIU Zi-min(School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400716,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400716

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2024年第10期117-128,F0003,共13页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“乡村振兴视域下脱贫摘帽地区内生发展能力提升的适宜路径与精准政策研究”(21AGL029);重庆市研究生科研创新项目“协同推进共同富裕与双碳目标的理论建模、微观验证及政策构建研究”(CYB22087);西南大学教师党支部“揭榜挂帅”项目“重庆探索超大城市现代化治理新路子研究”(SWU2409402)。

摘　　要：在全球气温变化的背景下,消除能源危机、有效保障家庭能源安全是国家发展的战略性目标和实现人类可持续发展的基础。本文基于2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,采用固定效应模型实证分析了极端气温对家庭能源贫困的影响及其机制。研究发现:以制冷度日数和供暖度日数衡量的极端气温对家庭能源贫困具有显著的正向影响,不同季节的气温冲击对家庭能源贫困的影响存在差异;以气温区间衡量的气温变化对家庭能源贫困的影响呈现非对称U型关系,即在基准气温区间两侧,家庭能源贫困发生的概率随着气温与基准气温差距的增加而上升;极端气温对家庭能源贫困的影响存在收入和地区异质性,不同气候带地区的极端气温对家庭能源贫困的影响也存在异质性;极端气温会影响家庭能源消费支出、家庭人均收入、工作休闲分配和可再生能源技术创新水平,从而影响家庭能源贫困的发生。本文所提供的极端气温影响家庭能源贫困的经验证据,可为政府采取积极措施应对极端气温,缓解家庭能源贫困以保障家庭能源安全提供科学依据。In recent years,extreme climatic events,such as extremely high temperatures and extremely low temperatures,have frequently occurred.Moreover,the“energy crisis”characterized by continuous electricity shortages,production restrictions,and soaring prices of oil,gas,and electricity is detrimental to ensuring household energy security and exacerbates the likelihood of residents falling into a vicious circle of energy poverty.This paper analyzes the impact of temperature changes under extreme climate shocks on household energy poverty and its mechanism based on the micro⁃data of six rounds of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2020.It reveals how temperature changes affect household energy poverty under extreme temperatures,especially focusing on the potential asymmetric effects of temperature changes on household energy poverty in China.The findings of the empirical study are as follows.Firstly,extreme temperatures measured by cooling degree days and heating degree days have a significantly positive impact on energy poverty.The impact of temperature shocks on energy poverty varies in different seasons.Secondly,the impact of temperature changes measured by the temperature box on energy poverty presents a non⁃symmetric U⁃shaped curve,i.e.,the rate of energy poverty development increases as the gap between temperature and the reference temperature increases on both sides of the reference temperature box.Thirdly,the impact of extreme temperatures on energy poverty has income and regional heterogeneity,and the impact of extreme temperatures on energy poverty in different climate zones also has heterogeneity.Finally,extreme temperatures affect household energy consumption expenditures,incomes,work and leisure,and renewable energy technology innovation,thereby affecting household energy poverty.Compared with previous studies,the potential innovations and contributions of this paper are manifested in the following aspects.Firstly,from the perspective of energy poverty,this study explores the asymmetric imp

关 键 词：极端气温 气温变化 气候带 家庭能源贫困 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] F328