“双碳”目标下中蒙煤炭铁路运输通道发展前景分析  

Analysis of the Development Prospects of China-Mongolia Coal Railway Transportation Corridor under the Dual Carbon Goals

作　　者：崔艳萍 CUI Yanping(Marketing Inspection and Evaluation Center,National Railway Administration,Beijing,100081)

机构地区：[1]国家铁路局市场监测评价中心,北京100081

出　　处：《东北亚经济研究》2024年第5期69-80,共12页Northeast Asia Economic Research

摘　　要：中蒙间加强煤炭贸易合作是落实两国元首会晤精神的重要方面,而铁路运输通道是保障煤炭贸易的物流基础设施。从煤电功能定位和达峰时间两个方面分析“双碳”目标下煤炭行业发展前景,分析进口煤市场结构将对国内市场带来三个影响:海运进口煤对沿海市场的挤压作用和不确定因素同步增强,优质炼焦煤对进口将长期依赖,我国煤炭进口的不确定性进一步增加。从蒙古国煤炭供需运现状、蒙古国铁路网规划建设现状、中蒙煤运通道互联互通现状三方面梳理了中蒙煤炭铁路运输通道现状,提出铁路运输通道建设的影响因素以及煤炭铁路运输通道的发展建议。Strengthening coal trade cooperation between China and Mongolia is an important aspect of implementing the guiding principles of the meeting between the two heads of state,and railway transportation corridors are the logistics infrastructure to ensure coal trade.First,the paper analyzes the development prospects of the coal industry under the dual carbon goals from such aspects as the positioning of coal power functions and the peak time.Secondly,it analyzes the three impacts that the structure of imported coal market will have on the domestic market:the squeezing effect and increasing uncertainty of imported coal by sea on coastal markets,the long-term dependence of high-quality coking coal on imports,and the further increase in uncertainty of China's coal imports.In addition,the current situation of coal supply and demand transportation in Mongolia,the planning and construction status of Mongolia's railway network,and the interconnection status of China-Mongolia coal transportation corridors were reviewed.The influencing factors of railway transportation corridor construction and development suggestions for coal railway transportation corridors were proposed.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 煤炭铁路运输通道 进口煤 发展前景 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F746