长三角地区传统村落空间分布及其影响因素研究  

Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Traditional Villages in Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：赖启福[1] 兰玉凤 李春硕 范志伟 LAI Qifu;LAN Yufeng;LI Chunshuo;FAN Zhiwei(School of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《河南科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期66-74,110,共10页Journal of Henan University of Science & Technology(Social science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY199)。

摘　　要：以长三角地区41个地市2012-2022年间评选的1255个传统村落为研究对象,采用核密度分析、标准差椭圆和随机森林回归等方法,分析传统村落空间演化规律及影响因素。研究结果表明:长三角地区传统村落空间分布不均衡,在苏浙皖交界处分布集中,形成了西北-东南方向的空间分布格局;少数民族人口比例对传统村落密度的正向影响最为明显,路网密度、人口密度、农业生产总值、城镇化率、财政支出和游客周转量等影响因子与传统村落密度间大多表现为负向关系;从影响因素来看,长三角地区传统村落的形成演化是地理条件、社会经济和历史文化交互耦合作用的结果。该研究能为长三角地区传统村落保护与开发和乡村振兴发展提供科学依据和理论参考。This study takes 1255 traditional villages selected from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2012 to 2022 as the research object and analyzes the spatial evolution patterns and influencing factors of traditional villages using methods such as kernel density analysis,standard deviation ellipse,and random forest regression.The results show that the spatial distribution of traditional villages in the Yangtze River Delta region is uneven,concentrated at the intersection of Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces,forming a“northwest-southeast”spatial distribution pattern.The proportion of ethnic minorities has the most significant positive effect on the density of traditional villages,while factors such as road network density,population density,agricultural production value,urbanization rate,fiscal expenditure,and tourist turnover are mostly negatively related to the density of traditional villages.From the perspective of influencing factors,the formation and evolution of traditional villages in the Yangtze River Delta region is the result of the coupled interaction of geographical conditions,socio-economics,and historical and cultural factors.This study provides a scientific basis and theoretical reference for the protection and development of traditional villages and the rural revitalization in the Yangtze River Delta region.

关 键 词：长三角地区 随机森林 传统村落 空间分布 影响因素 

分 类 号：K901.8[历史地理—人文地理学]