中国经济低碳转型与财政政策提质增效——基于减碳和增长双视角的DSGE模拟分析  

China's Economic Low-Carbon Transition and Fiscal Policy Optimization——A DSGE Simulation Analysis from the Dual Perspectives of Carbon Reduction and Growth

作　　者：赵桂芝[1] 郭雁飞 Zhao Guizhi;Guo Yanfei

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第6期71-87,共17页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色标准经济学学科体系与推动我国高质量发展研究”(18ZDA036)。

摘　　要：气候变化给经济发展和社会稳定带来前所未有的重大挑战,经济低碳转型已成为国际社会共识,充分发挥财政政策的激励、约束、引导和调控作用意义深远。本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析了不同财政政策对经济低碳转型的动态影响和传导机制,探讨经济增长和碳减排双重目标下的财税政策工具选择。政策单独模拟发现,能源税、碳税、节能减碳支出以及绿色企业补贴在促进碳减排和经济增长方面各有优劣。政策组合模拟发现,合理的财税政策组合能够克服单一施策的短板,并增强经济低碳转型的综合效能;碳税、节能减碳支出与绿色企业补贴政策的优化组合有助于财政政策赋能经济低碳转型的进一步提质增效。Climate change presents unprecedented challenges to economic development and social stability.The transition to a low-carbon economy has become a consensus within the international community.It is of profound importance to fully leverage the incentivizing,constraining,guiding,and regulating roles of fiscal policy.This study constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model to simulate and analyze the dynamic impacts and transmission mechanisms of various fiscal policies on the transition to a lowcarbon economy.It explores the selection of fiscal and tax policy tools under the dual objectives of economic growth and carbon emission reduction.The individual policy simulations reveal that energy taxes,carbon taxes,spending on energy conservation and carbon reduction,and subsidies for green enterprises each have their own advantages and disadvantages in promoting both carbon reduction and economic growth.The combined policy simulations indicate that a well-designed mix of fiscal and tax policies can overcome the limitations of singlepolicy approaches and enhance the overall effectiveness of the low-carbon transition.An optimized combination of carbon taxes,spending on energy conservation and carbon reduction,and subsidies for green enterprises can further improve the quality and efficiency of fiscal policy in empowering the transition to a low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：经济低碳转型 DSGE模型 动态模拟 政策联动效应 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]