基于MaxEnt模型的青藏高原青稞适生区对气候变化响应的分析  

Response of suitable area of highland barley in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to climate change based on Maximum Entropy Model analysis

作　　者：赵佳丽 兰措卓玛 王伟[1] 王寒冬[2] 王稳 沈纪萍 ZHAO Jiali;LANCUO Zhuoma;WANG Wei;WANG Handong;WANG Wen;SHEN Jiping(Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;Key Laboratory of Plateau Adaptation and Evolution,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Crop Molecular Breeding,Qinghai Province/Research and Utilization Laboratory of Crop Germplasm Resources in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,Qinghai Province/Northwest Plateau Biology Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining 810001,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学,西宁810016 [2]中国科学院高原适应与进化重点实验室/青海省作物分子育种重点实验室/青藏高原作物种质资源研究与利用实验室/中国科学院西北高原生物研究所,西宁810001 [3]青海大学省部共建三江源生态与高原农牧业国家重点实验室,西宁810016

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2024年第10期1626-1638,共13页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261030)资助。

摘　　要：青藏高原对气候变化的响应十分敏感,研究长时间序列气候变化对青藏高原青稞适生区的影响可以为高原农业应对气候变化和优化青稞种植空间格局提供参考。本文以163个青藏高原青稞样点为研究对象,运用ArcGIS软件和最大熵模型(Maximum Entropy Model, MaxEnt)对其进行模拟预测,得到影响青藏高原青稞分布的主要环境因子和气候变化下古气候时期(末次间冰期、末次冰盛期和全新世中期)、当代(1970—2000年)、未来(2021—2100年) SSP126和SSP585两种情景下青稞在青藏高原的分布范围以及空间格局变化。结果表明:1)影响青稞分布的最关键环境因子是年降水量、年平均气温、最干季度平均温度和海拔,当气候处于不稳定和极端干冷化情况下,海拔是控制青稞适生区面积的关键因子。2)从末次间冰期到全新世中期再到当代,青稞适生区面积增大,逐渐扩张到青藏高原东北部的河湟谷地、东南缘的川西地区和藏南谷地的一江两河流域,未来青稞适生区向高原中部和北部扩张,东南部面积缩减。3)在SSP126情景气候变化条件下,青稞适生区质心点向高纬度、高海拔地区移动,并且未来青稞适生区海拔上限增加207 m。结合其他研究可得出,末次冰期到全新世,青稞种植区发生扩张受制于气候暖湿化和人类在高原定居并进行农牧业传播的双重影响;当代到未来,青稞潜在适生区发生扩张可能是由于气候变暖使得种植青稞的海拔上限提高,青稞潜在适生区缩减可能是由于一些气候突变事件导致气温变化幅度超过了青稞发育的最适温度。Given the highly sensitive response of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to climate change,studying the impact of long-term climate change on suitable areas of highland barley cultivation on this plateau can offer valuable insights into how plateau agriculture responds to climate change.This,in turn,can facilitate the optimization of the spatial arrangement of highland barley cultivation.In this study,163 highland barley samples from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were used as the study object,the primary environmental factors affecting the distribution of highland barley on the plateau were simulated and predicted using ArcGIS software and the Maximum Entropy Model.In addition,the influence of climate change on the distribution range and spatial pattern of highland barley on the plateau across various historical periods(the Last Inter-glacial Period,the Last Glacial Maximum Period,and the Mid-Holocene Period)and contemporary times(1970—2000)was investigated,and the impact in the future(2021—2100)was simulated under two scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585).The following results were obtained.1)The most critical environmental factors affecting the distribution of highland barley across the plateau included annual precipitation,annual average temperature,average temperature in the driest quarter,and altitude.In unstable,extremely dry,and cold climates,the suitable areas for highland barley production was mainly determined by elevation.2)From the Last Inter-glacial Period to the Mid-Holocene Period and then to the present era,the suitable areas for highland barley had gradually expanded to the Hehuang Valley in the northeastern section of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,the Western Sichuan Region in the southeastern margin of the plateau,and Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries in the Southern Xizang Valley.In the future,the suitable areas for highland barley will further expand towards the central and northern parts of the plateau,whereas the suitable areas in the southeast will decrease.3)Under the conditions of SSP126 scenar

关 键 词：气候变化 青藏高原 青稞适生区 环境因子 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：S512[农业科学—作物学] S162