我国省域农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化研究——基于哈肯模型的实证分析  

Co-evolution of agroecology and food security at the provincial level in China:An empirical analysis based on the Haken model

作　　者：仲嘉维 郑军[1] ZHONG Jiawei;ZHENG Jun(College of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,泰安271018

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2024年第10期1780-1792,共13页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL160)资助。

摘　　要：农业生态和粮食安全均深刻影响着我国农业农村现代化进程,探讨农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化态势和内在机理,可助力我国农业强国目标实现。本文以2011—2022年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市,不包含香港地区、澳门地区、台湾地区和西藏自治区)为研究对象,建立农业生态与粮食安全评价体系,首先利用熵权法和空间统计工具测度二者发展水平,然后利用哈肯模型探寻协同系统的序参量及协同水平,最后利用Dagum基尼系数揭示协同现状的空间差异及来源。研究结果表明:1)我国农业生态与粮食安全水平均呈不断上升的趋势;二者的重心及迁移轨迹也较为相似,均向东北方向迁移,表明未来东北方向可能是二者协同的重点区域。2)农业生态为农业生态与粮食安全协同系统的序参量,主导着协同系统的演化;2011—2022年我国农业生态与粮食安全协同度整体呈稳中有进的态势,大致经历“初级协同期—中级协同期—高级协同期”的演变历程。空间格局上,各地区二者协同度差异明显,均值呈“东北>中部>东部>西部”的分布格局。分地区来看,协同度内部差异东部地区最大,其中海南省一直处于东部最低值;中部地区最小,表明中部各地区正合力推进二者协同。3)农业生态与粮食安全协同度空间差异正逐步增大,地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源,尤其是东-西地区间的差异最为显著。该文认为农业生态与粮食安全协同发展过程中农业生态的推动力度更为显著,针对各地区差异显著的问题,应因区施策着重注意农业生态的重要地位,以此引导农业生态与粮食安全高质量协同演进。Agroecology and food security have a profound impact on the process of agricultural and rural modernization in China,and exploring the co-evolution trends and internal mechanisms of agroecology and food security can help China achieve its goal of becoming a strong agricultural country and exploring possible ways to achieve high-quality synergy between agroecology and food security.This study established an evaluation system for agroecology and food security using 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities,excluding Hong Kong region,Macao region,Taiwan region,and Xizang)in China from 2011 to 2022 as the research target.Initially,the entropy weight method and spatial statistical tools were used to measure the development level of agroecology and food security.The Haken model was used to explore the sequence parameters and cooperation level of the collaborative system,and the Dagum Gini coefficient was used to reveal the spatial differences and sources of the current situation of the cooperation of agroecology and food security.There were three key findings of this study.1)The level of agroecology and food security in China has generally exhibited a progressive trend.The center of gravity and migration trajectories of agroecology and food security were similar,with both migrating towards the northeast.This suggested that the future may see the northeast direction as a potential source of collaboration between agroecology and food security.2)Agroecology is the sequence parameter of the synergistic system of agroecology and food security,which dominates the evolution of the synergistic system.This reflects the importance of agroecology in the relationship between food security and agroecology.From 2011 to 2022,the synergy between agroecology and food security in China showed a steady and pro-gressive trend,and it roughly experienced the evolution process of“primary synergy period-intermediate synergy period-advanced synergy period”.The internal difference within the central region was the smallest,indicati

关 键 词：农业生态 粮食安全 协同演化 哈肯模型 Dagum基尼系数 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]