我国省际经济国内国际双循环测度与地区差异研究  

Research on the Measurement of Domestic and International Cycle of China’s Inter-provincial Economy and Regional Differences

作　　者：韩兆安 吴海珍 云乐鑫[2] Han Zhaoan;Wu Haizhen;Yun Lexin

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院 [2]青岛理工大学商学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第9期21-31,共11页Statistical Research

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目“智能制造企业创业与数字商业生态重塑机理研究”(ZR2022MG021);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“公司创业视角下数字商业模式创新对制造企业生态系统重塑的机理研究”(21YJC630161);青岛市社科规划项目“青岛数字经济与实体经济融合发展测度及优化路径研究”(QDSKL2301059)。

摘　　要：基于中国区域投入产出表,本文测度了我国省际(区域)及不同产业的省内(区域内)循环、省际(区域间)循环和国际循环,并探究地区差异及来源。研究发现,2012年、2015年和2017年我国国民经济循环以国内大循环为主,国内大循环占比均值为92.75%,省内循环占比由2012年的57.17%下降至2017年的54.40%,省际循环占比由2012年的34.74%上升至2017年的38.77%,省际间经济贸易呈上升趋势,全国统一大市场发展良好。分区域看,西北地区区域间循环占比最高,华南地区国际循环占比最高,华中地区区域内循环占比最高。分产业来看,农业的省际循环占比最高,制造业的国际循环占比最高,服务业的省内循环占比最高。我国省际经济国内国际双循环的地区差异主要来源于组间,观察期内平均组间差异贡献率高达64.13%。本研究为制定差异化省际(区域)政策、产业政策提供现实依据,对加快构建“以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局具有实际意义。Based on China’s regional input-output table,this paper measures the intra-provincial(intra-regional)cycle,inter-provincial(inter-regional)cycle and international cycle of different industries in China,and explores their regional differences and sources.The study finds that in 2012,2015,and 2017,China's national economic cycle is dominated by domestic major circulation,with the average proportion of domestic major circulation being 92.75%,and the proportion of intra-provincial circulation decreases from 57.17%in 2012 to 54.40%in 2017.The proportion of inter-provincial circulation increases from 34.74%in 2012 to 38.77%in 2017.Inter-provincial economic trade is on the rise,and the national unified market is developing well.The proportion of inter-regional circulation is the highest in northwest China,the proportion of international circulation is the highest in South China,and the proportion of intra-regional circulation is the highest in Central China.By industry,the proportion of inter-provincial circulation in agriculture is the highest,the proportion of international circulation in manufacturing is the highest,and the proportion of intra-provincial circulation in service industry is the highest.The regional differences of the domestic and international cycle of the inter-provincial economy mainly come from the inter-group,and the average contribution rate of the inter-group difference reaches 64.13%during the observation period.This paper provides practical basis for formulating differentiated inter-provincial(regional)policies and industrial policies,and has positive significance for accelerating the construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern of“with the domestic great cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other”.

关 键 词：新发展格局 省际经济 国内国际双循环 投入产出模型 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济]