市场规模、劳动力禀赋与外商直接投资模式——来自我国双向投资的证据  

Market Size,Labor Endowment and Foreign Direct Investment Patterns:Evidence from Two-way Investment in China

作　　者：陈晓林 薛军 陈培如 Chen Xiaolin;Xue Jun;Chen Peiru

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院 [2]广州大学新结构经济学研究中心 [3]南开大学经济学院 [4]广东财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第9期86-100,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球产业变革下中国FDI增速放缓成因、影响机制及对策研究”(20CJL015)。

摘　　要：水平型和垂直型跨国投资模式的识别一直是经验研究难题,本文旨在有效识别两种投资模式,并分析投资国与东道国市场规模及劳动力禀赋结构差异对企业跨国投资决策和投资模式的影响。通过构建一个包含双向国际直接投资的两国一般均衡模型,利用国际投资与贸易关系识别水平型和垂直型投资,使用与我国有直接投资关系的双边国别和跨国子公司数据检验得到如下结论。投资国相对东道国市场规模越大、熟练劳动力越充足时,投资国市场由本土企业主导,企业跨国投资概率小;当两国市场规模和劳动力禀赋结构越相似时,投资国市场由水平型跨国企业主导;当投资国相对市场规模越小、熟练劳动力越充足时,其市场由垂直型跨国企业主导。本文的创新之处在于提出具备可重复检验性的水平型和垂直型投资模式识别策略,并厘清本土企业、水平型和垂直型跨国企业三类企业主导投资国市场的充分条件,为分析跨国投资决策及模式的经验研究提供了新的思路。The identification of horizontal and vertical overseas investment patterns has always been a difficult problem in empirical research.We aim to effectively identify the two patterns and analyze the effect of differences in market size and in labor endowment structure between parent country and host country on whether firms invest overseas and their investment patterns.We develop a two-country general equilibrium model including two-way foreign direct investment(FDI),use the relationship between international investment and trade to identify horizontal and vertical investment,and make an empirical test using the data of countries and multinational affiliates with direct investment relations with China from 2010 to 2019.We draw the conclusions as follows,first,the probability of overseas investment is low and domestic firms will be the dominant type active in parent country if the country is both larger and more skilled-labor abundant than the host country.Second,the parent market will be dominated by horizontal multinational firms if the two countries are similar in market size and labor endowment structure.Third,vertical multinational firms will be dominant if the parent country is of small size and skilled-labor abundance relative to the host country.The contribution of the paper is that we propose a repeatable and testable identification strategy for horizontal and vertical investment patterns,and discuss the sufficient conditions for domestic firms,horizontal and vertical multinational firms to dominate the parent country market,which provides a new way of thinking for empirical research to analyze overseas investment decisions and patterns.

关 键 词：市场规模 劳动力禀赋 水平型投资 垂直型投资 

分 类 号：F113.3[经济管理—国际贸易] F830.59[经济管理—世界经济]