“丝路电商”合作与中国对外贸易增长  

“The Silk Road E-commerce”Cooperation and the Growth of China's Foreign Trade

作　　者：任婉婉 林天汉 郝宇倩 REN Wanwan;LIN Tianhan;HAO Yuqian

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学现代商贸中心 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院 [3]上海财经大学商学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第9期123-139,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“‘互联网+产业集群’与全球价值链高端攀升:理论模型与中国经验”(71903175);浙江省自然科学基金青年项目“产业集群视角下中国全球价值链高端攀升路径研究”(LQ19G030005);中国(杭州)跨境电商学院课题成果“产业集群虚拟转型助推制造业全球价值链高端攀升的路径研究”(2021KXYJ02);浙江省教育厅一般科研项目“数字中间品进口赋能出口产品质量升级的内在机制与路径研究”(Y202250328)。

摘　　要：在深度剖析“丝路电商”合作影响贸易发展内在机制的基础上,基于2017—2021年国家—月度—产品贸易数据,本文以电子商务合作谅解备忘录的签订为准自然实验,采用双重差分法实证检验了“丝路电商”的贸易效应与内在机制。研究结果表明:“丝路电商”合作能够显著促进中国与“一带一路”沿线经济体贸易总额增长,且主要通过降低贸易成本、弥合数字鸿沟、促进规制融合、释放需求潜力四种渠道实现;“丝路电商”不仅有助于推动跨境电商产品、数字产品等外贸新业态的发展,还促进了合作方与中国自由贸易协定缔约国的双边贸易增长,具有显著的第三方效应。本文为持续推动“丝路电商”合作提供了直接证据,也为构建电子商务全球治理的中国方案提供了理论支撑。Based on an in-depth analysis of the internal mechanisms by which the in-stitutional openness of e-commerce affects trade development,and using 2017-2021 na-tional-monthly-product trade data,this paper takes the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding on E-commerce Cooperation as a natural experiment.By employing the difference-in-differences method,the trade effects and internal mechanisms of“the Silk Road E-commerce”are empirically tested.The research results indicate that“the Silk Road E-commerce”cooperation can significantly promote the growth of total trade between China and the economies along“the Belt and Road”route,mainly through four channels:reducing trade costs,bridging the digital gap,promoting regulatory convergence,and re-leasing demand potential.“The Silk Road E-commerce”not only helps to promote the development of new foreign trade forms such as cross-border e-commerce products and dig-ital products but also promotes the growth of bilateral trade between the cooperating parties and China's Free Trade Agreement(FTA)partner countries,showing a significant third-party effect.This paper provides direct evidence for the continued promotion of“the Silk Road E-commerce”cooperation and also provides theoretical support for the construction of a Chinese solution for global e-commerce governance.

关 键 词：“丝路电商”合作 贸易增长 跨境电商 “一带一路”沿线 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]