基于IMPACT模型评估行为危险因素对2010—2015年天津市45岁及以上人群缺血性心脏病死亡下降的影响  

Evaluating the effect of behavioral risk factors on the decline in ischemic heart disease deaths among people(≥45 years old)in Tianjin from 2010 to 2015 based on the IMPACT model

作　　者：李丹丹 李威[1] 薛晓丹[1] 解美秋 郑文龙[1] 江国虹[1] LI Dandan;LI Wei;XUE Xiaodan;XIE Meiqiu;ZHENG Wenlong;JIANG Guohong(Department of Non-communicable Diseases Prevention and Control,Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心非传染性疾病预防控制所,天津300011

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2024年第8期589-592,共4页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：天津市医学重点学科(专科)建设项目(TJYXZDXK-051A);天津市卫生健康科技项目(TJWJ2023QN094)。

摘　　要：目的 了解主要行为危险因素对2010—2015年天津市缺血性心脏病死亡下降的影响,为制定有效的防控策略提供依据。方法 基于2010—2015年天津市居民全死因监测数据及2010年和2015年天津市居民行为危险因素调查数据进行研究。选择的危险因素包括吸烟状况、蔬菜摄入量、水果摄入量和体力活动水平。采用IMPACT模型,利用回归法和PARF法计算危险因素变化对缺血性心脏病推迟或减少死亡的贡献。采用SPSS 24.0软件进行χ^(2)检验。结果 与2010年相比,2015年天津市45岁及以上人群因缺血性心脏病而推迟死亡的总数共计1 861人,其中男性978人,女性883人。行为危险因素改变共减少了25.20%缺血性心脏病的死亡,其中水果摄入量的增加减少了14.13%的缺血性心脏病的死亡,吸烟率的降低和缺乏体力活动率的降低也分别减少3.60%和9.19%缺血性心脏病死亡,而蔬菜摄入量的降低使缺血性心脏病的死亡增加了1.72%。结论 增加蔬果摄入、提高体力活动水平、戒烟等健康生活方式对减少缺血性心脏病的死亡有积极作用,应采取针对性的宣传方式和干预措施进行有效防控。Objective To understand the effect of behavioral risk factors on the decrease of ischemic heart disease(IHD)death in Tianjin from 2010 to 2015,and provide the basis for formulating effective prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the monitoring data of all causes of death of Tianjin residents and the survey data of behavioral risk factors of Tianjin residents in 2010 and 2015,the risk factors including smoking status,vegetable intake,fruit intake,and level of physical activity were selected.The IMPACT model was used,and regression and PARF methods were used to calculate the contribution of changes in risk factors to prevent or postpone death from IHD.Theχ^(2) test was used to analyze the data.The used software was SPSS 22.0.Results As compared with 2010,the total number of delayed death due to IHD in residents(≥45 years old)of Tianjin in 2015 was 1861 cases(978 males and 883 females).The change of risk factors reduced 25.20%of IHD death.The increase of fruit intake reduced the 14.13%of IHD mortality,the decrease of smoking rate and the lack of physical exercise also reduced the 3.60%and 9.19%of IHD mortality,respectively.However,the decrease of vegetable intake increased the 1.72%of IHD mortality.Conclusion Healthy lifestyles such as increasing intake of fruits and vegetables,increasing physical activity levels,and quitting smoking have a positive effect on reducing deaths from IHD.Targeted publicity methods and intervention measures should be taken for effective prevention and control.

关 键 词：IMPACT模型 缺血性心脏病 死亡率 行为危险因素 

分 类 号：R541[医药卫生—心血管疾病]