电力电量平衡视角下新型电力系统极端场景研究及应对综述  

Research and Response to Extreme Scenarios in New Power System:A Review From Perspective of Electricity and Power Balance

作　　者：郭红霞[1] 陈凌轩 张启 黄河[3] 马骞[3] 王建学[2] GUO Hongxia;CHEN Lingxuan;ZHANG Qi;HUANG He;MA Qian;WANG Jianxue(School of Electric Power Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,Guangdong Province,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Xi’an Jiao Tong University,Xi’an 710049,Shaanxi Province,China;Power Dispatching&Communication Centre of China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510630,Guangdong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510641 [2]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710049 [3]中国南方电网电力调度控制中心,广东省广州市510630

出　　处：《电网技术》2024年第10期3975-3991,I0002,I0004,I0005,共20页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB2403500):“支撑20%新能源电量占比场景下的电网智能调度关键技术”。

摘　　要：全球气候变化加剧背景下极端天气事件频发,受能源转型政策、地缘政治影响一次能源供应与负荷水平均呈现强不确定性。中国正处于可再生能源占比不断提升的新型电力系统建设阶段,极端场景下电力电量平衡问题凸显并呈现出加剧趋势。基于此,从极端场景基本内涵、模拟与生成技术、在电力系统中的应用以及应对措施等角度入手,总结电力电量平衡视角下新型电力系统中的极端场景研究。首先,归纳了极端场景的定义与特性,指出了极端场景与极端事件、最恶劣场景等概念之间联系,归纳了极端场景集的构建方法;随后,针对极端场景小样本特性,梳理了极端场景的直接与间接生成方法;探讨了极端场景在电力系统中的应用方法与具体应用领域;最后,结合现有研究与实际工程案例从4个层面提出了极端场景的应对策略,并指出了极端场景的后续研究方向,为后续建设灵活可靠、供需平衡的电力系统提供了思路。Extreme weather events occur frequently under global climate change intensification.Under the influence of energy transition policies and geopolitics,primary energy supply and load levels are highly uncertain.China is in the construction stage of a new power system with an increasing proportion of renewable energy;the problem of power and energy balance under extreme scenarios is highlighted and shows a tendency to intensify.Based on this,this paper summarizes the research on extreme scenarios in the New Power System from the perspectives of the basic connotation of extreme scenarios,simulation and generation technology,application in the power system,countermeasures,etc.Firstly,the definition and characteristics of extreme scenarios are summarized,and the connection between extreme scenarios,extreme events,worst scenarios,and other concepts is pointed out.In contrast,the method of constructing extreme scenarios is concluded.Subsequently,the direct and indirect generation methods of extreme scenarios are sorted out for the small sample characteristics of extreme scenarios;the application methods of extreme scenarios in the power system and specific application areas are discussed;finally,the countermeasures of extreme scenarios are proposed at four levels by combining the existing research and actual engineering cases,and the follow-up research direction for extreme scenarios is highlighted,providing ideas for the subsequent construction of a flexible,reliable and supply-demand balanced power system.

关 键 词：极端场景 应对策略 可再生能源 新型电力系统 电力电量平衡 场景生成 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]