应用移动流行区间法分析2012—2023年浙江省流行性感冒流行强度  

Application of moving epidemic method in evaluation of influenza epidemic intensity in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2023

作　　者：丰燕[1] 徐增豪 凌锋[2] 金家列 王笑笑[1] 尚晓鹏[2] 孙继民[1] FENG Yan;XU Zenghao;LING Feng;JIN Jialie;WANG Xiaoxiao;SHANG Xiaopeng;SUN Jimin(Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China;Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,浙江杭州310051 [2]浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江杭州310051

出　　处：《预防医学》2024年第10期829-833,共5页China Preventive Medicine Journal

基　　金：2022年浙江省卫生健康科技计划项目(2022KY127,2022KY131);国家科技部重点研发计划项目(2023YFC2308705)。

摘　　要：目的应用移动流行区间法(MEM)估算2012—2023年浙江省流行性感冒(流感)的流行阈值和分级强度阈值,评估流感流行强度,为浙江省流感防控提供参考。方法通过中国流感监测信息系统收集2012—2022年浙江省流感流行季(第40周至次年第20周)流感病毒核酸阳性率资料,建立MEM模型,采用交叉验证法筛选最优模型;利用最大累积和百分比函数划分流行前期、流行期和流行后期,估算流感流行阈值及强度分级阈值,并评估2022—2023年流行季浙江省流感流行强度。结果2012—2022年有5个流感流行季的流感病毒核酸阳性率数据纳入模型,参数δ取1.5时MEM模型表现最优,灵敏度为0.971,特异度为0.745,约登指数为0.716。模型分析结果显示,2022—2023年流行季浙江省流感流行开始阈值和结束阈值分别为19.32%和10.92%,中、高和极高强度阈值分别为48.65%、63.49%和68.47%。由此评估2022年第40周—2023年第7周为流感流行前期;第8—18周为流感流行期,其中第8周处于低流行强度,第9周达到高流行强度,第10—13周处于极高流行强度,第14周、第15周分别回落至高流行和中流行强度,第16—18周降至低流行强度;第19周后处于流行后期。结论MEM可用于评估流感流行强度,为早期识别流感流行并采取分级防控措施提供参考。Objective To estimate the epidemic threshold and graded intensity thresholds of influenza in Zhejiang Prov⁃ince from 2012 to 2023 using the moving epidemic method(MEM),and evaluate the intensity of influenza epidemics,so as to provide the reference for influenza prevention and control in Zhejiang Province.Methods The positive rates of influenza virus per week during the influenza epidemic seasons(from 40th week to 20th week of the following year)in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Influenza Surveillance Information System.A MEM model was established and optimized using cross-validation.The maximum accumulated rates percentage was used to divide the epidemic into pre-epidemic,epidemic,and post-epidemic periods,and to estimate the epidemic thresholds and graded intensity thresholds.The intensity of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang Province during the 2022-2023 epidemic season were assessed.Results The positive rates of influenza virus in five epidemic seasons from 2012 to 2022 were included in the model.The MEM model performed best when the parameterδwas set to 1.5,with a sen⁃sitivity of 0.971,a specificity of 0.745,and a Youden's index of 0.716.According to the model analysis,the epidemic beginning and ending thresholds of influenza in Zhejiang Province during the 2022-2023 epidemic season were 19.32%and 10.92%,respectively,and the medium,high,and extremely high intensity thresholds were 48.65%,63.49%,and 68.47%,respectively.During 2022-2023,the influenza epidemic was in the pre-epidemic period from the 40th week in 2022 to the 7th week in 2023;the epidemic period was from the 8th to the 18th week,the epidemic intensity was low in the 8th week and increased to a high level in the 9th week,and reached to a extremely high level from the 10th to the 13th week,then fell to the high and the medium level in the 14th week and 15th week,respectively,and fell to a low level from the 16th to the 18th week;the influenza epidemic entered the post-epidemic period since the 19th week.Co

关 键 词：流行性感冒 移动流行区间法 流行强度 流行阈值 

分 类 号：R373.1[医药卫生—病原生物学]