央行是否应重新启用“逆周期因子”?——基于反事实方法的评估  

Should the Central Bank Reinstate the Counter-Cyclical Factor?——An Evaluation Based on Counterfactual Methods

作　　者：程贵 刘宇哲 王海英 CHENG Gui;LIU Yu-zhe;WANG Hai-ying(School of Finance,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学金融学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2024年第4期55-67,共13页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“高水平对外开放的动力机制、经济效应与实现路径研究”(23XJY005)。

摘　　要：逆周期因子调节是中国外汇管理创新的重要手段之一,有助于平复汇率波动。文章使用CFETS包含的22个国家日度汇率数据,测算中国是否在2022年重新启用逆周期因子,进而利用回归控制法预测中国若未采用逆周期因子调节人民币汇率变化的反事实结果,从而估计逆周期因子对人民币汇率的作用效果。研究结果表明,2022年中国外汇管理重新启用逆周期因子调节,对汇率的双向波动均有明显的抑制作用。对此,建议央行进一步推动人民币汇率市场化进程,在面对重大外部负向冲击时,可将逆周期因子作为一种非常规汇率管理工具重新启用,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,把握防范化解重大风险的战略主动,助力推动经济高质量发展。The adjustment of the counter-cyclical factor is one of the important innovations in China’s foreign exchange management,which helps to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations.This study uses daily exchange rate data from 22 countries included in the CFETS to assess whether China reinstated the counter-cyclical factor in 2022.It then employs a regression control method to forecast the counterfactual outcome of RMB exchange rate fluctuations had China not implemented the counter-cyclical factor,thereby estimating its impact on the RMB exchange rate.The findings indicate that the reinstatement of the counter-cyclical factor in China’s foreign exchange management in 2022 significantly suppressed bidirectional fluctuations in the exchange rate.Therefore,it is recommended that the Central Bank further promote the marketization process of the RMB exchange rate.In the face of severe external negative shocks,the counter-cyclical factor could be reactivated as a non-conventional exchange rate management tool to maintain basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level,seize the strategic initiative to prevent and defuse risks,and help promote high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：逆周期因子 汇率波动 反事实分析 非常规汇率管理工具 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]