劳动力转移影响粮食生产韧性的理论机制与实证检验  

Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Verification of Impact of Labor Transfer on the Resilience of Grain Production

作　　者：曾福生[1] 蔡林军 ZENG Fu-sheng;CAI Lin-jun(School of Economics,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期84-94,共11页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17CJY040);湖南省社会科学基金项目(21JD020)。

摘　　要：在测度粮食生产韧性的基础上,利用2008—2021年中国省际面板数据,选择固定效应模型与中介效应模型,实证检验了农业劳动力非农转移对粮食生产韧性的影响及其可能机制。研究结果表明,农业劳动力非农转移能显著提升粮食生产韧性。机制验证发现,农业劳动力非农转移主要通过推动农地适度规模经营来提高粮食生产韧性。异质性分析发现,在粮食主产区和地形起伏较小的北方地区,农业劳动力非农转移对粮食生产韧性的提升作用更为显著。据此,应鼓励农业劳动力非农转移,建立并完善农地流转市场交易体系,推动农地适度规模经营和农户种粮收益上升,以有效提升粮食增产、提质与增效的内源动力和韧性水平。Based on measuring the resilience of grain production,using inter provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021 in China,a fixed effects model and a mediation effect model were selected to empirically test the impact of non-agricultural labor transfer on grain production resilience and its possible mechanisms.The research results indicate that non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor can significantly enhance the resilience of food production.Mechanism verification finds that non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor mainly improves the resilience of grain production by promoting moderate scale operation of agricultural land.Heterogeneity analysis show that in the main grain producing areas and the northern regions without much fluctuations,the non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor has a more significant effect on improving the resilience of grain production.Therefore,it is necessary to encourage the non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor,establish a comprehensive trading system of agricultural land transfer market,promote moderate scale operation of agricultural land and increase farmers income from grain cultivation,so as to effectively enhance the internal driving force and resilience level of increasing grain production,quality and efficiency.

关 键 词：粮食安全 劳动力转移 粮食生产韧性 种粮收益 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]