综合单位线在洪水预报中的应用  

Application of Synthetic Unit Hydrograph in Flood Forecasting

作　　者：林友勤 朱振洋[1] 李玉玲[2] 郭元 王慧亮[2] LIN You-qin;ZHU Zhen-yang;LI Yu-ling;GUO Yuan;WANG Hui-liang(Fujian Provincial Investigation,Design&Research Institute of Water Conservancy&Hydropower,Co.Ltd,Fuzhou 350000,Fujian Province,China;College of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,福建福州350000 [2]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第10期25-31,39,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3090601);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A170003)。

摘　　要：洪水预报对于流域和城市地区的防洪减灾工作至关重要。在流域方面,洪水预报方法发展较为成熟,城市地区的应用尚处研究探索阶段。实际工作中,大洪水期间高精度水文水动力模型不同程度的受到电力、时效性、传输条件等制约,而单位线方法简洁高效,受限因素少,能够发挥重要作用。针对当前情况,研究引入了改进的综合单位线法,评估其在流域和城市洪水预报中的实践效果。首先,基于Snyder综合单位线法计算福建省穆阳溪流域洪水过程,与新安江模型结果和实测资料进行对比分析;其次,在Snyder综合单位线的基础上考虑下垫面不透水性、坡度等,建立城市综合单位线,将其应用于在郑州城区的洪水过程线计算,并比较了该方法与主流SWMM模型模拟结果的差异。研究结果表明:综合单位线法在所选流域计算洪水与实测、水文模型结果接近,预报合格率为91.7%,且无峰现时差;城市区域计算结果与SWMM模型结果相比,大部分场次洪水的洪峰流量相对误差在10%以内,72.7%的场次洪水确定性系数在0.9以上。通过实例应用表明,相较于水文、水动力模型法,综合单位线法计算的洪水部分涨落过程优于模型结果,更符合实际过程,并且计算简洁,所需参数少,实施推广性强。进一步验证了综合单位线法在洪水预报中的优越性,为洪水过程计算提供了一种有效的方法。Flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation in both watersheds and urban areas.In watersheds,the development of flood forecasting methods is relatively mature,while their application in urban areas is still in the research and exploration stage.In practice,high-precision hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling during large floods is constrained to varying degrees by power,timeliness,and transmission conditions,whereas the unit hydrograph method is simple,efficient,has fewer constraints,and plays an important role.To address the current situation,this study introduces an improved synthetic unit hydrograph method to evaluate its practical effectiveness in watershed and urban flood forecasting.Firstly,based on the Snyder's synthetic unit hydrograph method,the flooding process in Muyangxi watershed in Fujian Province was calculated and compared with the results of the Xin'anjiang model and the measured data;secondly,based on the Snyder's synthetic unit hydrograph method,the urban synthetic unit hydrograph was established by taking into account the impermeability of the sub-surface and the slope,which was then applied to the calculation of the flooding process line in the urban area of Zhengzhou,and the differences of the simulation results between this method and the mainstream SWMM model were compared.The differences between this method and the mainstream SWMM model simulation results are compared.The results show that the synthetic unit hydrograph method is close to the measured and hydrological model results in the selected watersheds,and the forecast pass rate is 91.7%,with no peak-present time difference;compared with the SWMM model results,the relative error of the peak flow of the most floods is within 10%,and the coefficient of certainty of the floods in 72.7%is above 0.9.The example application shows that compared with the hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling methods,the partial rise and fall process of the flood calculated by the synthetic unit hydrograph method is better than the mode

关 键 词：综合单位线 城市综合单位线 城市洪涝 流域洪水 水文模型 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV124