中国锂资源安全综合评价及预测预警研究  

Research on comprehensive evaluation and prediction of lithium resource security in China

作　　者：周之逸 樊锦绮 成金华[1,3] 朱永光[1] 徐德义[1] 毛羽 ZHOU Zhiyi;FAN Jinqi;CHENG Jinhua;ZHU Yongguang;XU Deyi;MAO Yu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;School of Resource,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Resource and Environmental Economics Research Center,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源学院,武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期571-588,共18页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991482);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD106);国家自然科学基金项目(72074097);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72204235).

摘　　要：当前,全球公共卫生事件、地缘冲突和大国博弈加剧冲击全球产业链供应链,新能源关键矿产面临较大供应风险.该文提出了包含需求预测、初级资源供给预测和回收资源供给预测在内的新的矿产资源保障程度预测模型.模型从情景分析出发,将微观矿山数据和宏观经济数据结合,综合运用计量模型、机器学习、因子模拟等方法,考虑了储量、成本、贸易等影响要素,对我国锂资源保障程度进行多情景下的综合预测分析.研究结果显示,我国锂资源存在长期资源储备不足的风险,加大勘察投入可以有效增加未来可供储量,提升资源保障程度;未来中国初级锂的保障程度逐渐上升,将在2030年满足国内一半需求;当前锂资源回收率较低,提高回收率能够有效提升次级锂的供应,当回收率提升至40%以上,能基本实现锂资源的对内保障.政策建议:加大勘探投入,实施新一轮找矿行动;提升矿业生产效率,保障初级资源生产;政府鼓励企业加强锂资源回收,提高资源回收率;加快技术革新,提升资源利用率,降低回收成本.Currently,global public health events,geopolitical conflicts,and power struggles are impacting the global industrial and supply chains.The critical metal resources for clean energy face significant supply risks.This article proposes a new model for predicting the degree of mineral resource security,including demand forecasting,primary resource supply forecasting,and recycling resource supply forecasting.Based on scenario analysis,the model combines micro mining data and macroeconomic data,and comprehensively applies econometric models,machine learning,factor simulation and other methods.This model fully considers factors such as exploration,cost,trade,and recycling to comprehensively predict and analyze the degree of lithium resource security in China under multiple scenarios.The research results show that there is a risk of insufficient long-term reserves of lithium resources in China.Increasing exploration investment can effectively increase future available reserves and improve resource security.The guarantee level of primary lithium in China will gradually increase in the future,and it will meet half of the domestic demand by 2030.The current lithium resource recovery rate is relatively low.Increasing the recovery rate can effectively enhance the supply of secondary lithium.When the recovery rate is increased to over 40%,it can basically achieve domestic protection of lithium resources.It is suggested to increase exploration investment,implement a new round of mining operations,improve mining production efficiency and to ensure the production of primary resources.The government is expected to encourage enterprises to strengthen lithium resource recovery and improve resource recovery rates.It is also suggested to accelerate technological innovation,improve resource utilization,and reduce recycling costs.

关 键 词：矿产资源 保障程度 锂资源 储量预测 产量预测 

分 类 号：TD98[矿业工程—选矿]