城市轨道交通运营突发事件风险动态演化模型  

Modelling on the Risk Dynamic Evolution of Urban Rail Transit Operation Emergency

作　　者：范博松 邵春福 赵丹 马社强 FAN Bosong;SHAO Chunfu;ZHAO Dan;MASheqiang(School of Traffic Management,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京100038 [2]新疆大学交通运输工程学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2024年第3期122-130,共9页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52072025);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2024JKF02ZK12)资助。

摘　　要：为了分析城市轨道交通运营突发事件的动态演化特征,探究影响城市轨道交通正常运营的风险致因,研究了城市轨道交通运营突发事件风险动态演化模型。采用bow-tie模型将运营突发事件的风险致因、预估时间裕度和事件严重程度有机组合,构建了风险动态模态,能够反映不同时刻城市轨道交通系统运营的风险状态。基于复杂网络模型,引入连边权重和结构洞理论改进节点的度分布,提出风险动态演化模型,表征风险动态模态及其演化过程。依托北京市轨道交通运营突发事件数据,探究运营突发事件的演化规律和重要风险致因。结果表明:北京市城市轨道交通运营突发事件网络的风险动态演化模型属于无标度网络,19.90%的风险动态模态承担了整个系统77.76%的动态演化过程;风险动态演化模型具有鲁棒且脆弱性,“较严重”“严重”模态对应的风险致因分别为“列车兑现率”“正点率”,这些风险致因给系统的动态演化造成了严重后果。因此,需要重点关注可能带来严重后果的风险致因,并根据系统的动态演化特征开展精准化的风险防控与韧性提升工作。In order to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of urban rail transit operation emergencies,and to explore risk factors affecting normal operations,this paper investigates a dynamic evolution model for such emergencies.The bow-tie model is used to integrate the causes of operational risks,estimated time margins and the severity of the emergencies,developing a risk dynamic model which reflects the operational risk status of urban rail transit systems at different moments.Based on a complex network model,the degree distribution of nodes is improved by introducing connected edge weights and structural hole theory,leading to the development of a risk dynamic evolution model which characterizes risk dynamic modes and their evolution process.Relying on the data from Beijing urban rail transit emergency operations,the research explores the evolution patterns of operation emergencies and identifies significant risk factors.The results show that the risk dynamic evolution model for Beijing urban rail transit operation emergency network exhibits the characteristics of a scale-free network,where 19.90%of risk dynamic modes account for 77.76%of the dynamic evolution process of the whole system.The risk dynamic evolution model demonstrates both robustness and fragility,with“train fulfillment”and“punctuality”identified as risk factors for the“more severe”and“severe”modes,respectively.These few but critical risk factors have significant consequences for the dynamic evolution of the system.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on risk factors that may bring serious consequences,and carry out targeted risk prevention,control and resilience enhancement,according to the dynamic evolution characteristics of the system.

关 键 词：城市交通 运营突发事件 风险动态演化模型 bow-tie模型 复杂网络 风险动态模态 

分 类 号：U268.6[机械工程—车辆工程]