预测姜黄属植物在中国当前和未来气候情景下的潜在分布区变化  

Prediction of the potential distribution of Curcuma in China under current and future climate scenarios

作　　者：王鹏 金正 余婷 秦康强 桑新亚 陶建平[1,2] 罗唯学 WANG Peng;JIN Zheng;YU Ting;QIN Kang-qiang;SANG Xin-ya;TAO Jian-ping;LUO Wei-xue(Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,School of Life Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station,School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,三峡库区植物生态与资源重庆市高校重点实验室,西南大学生命科学学院,重庆400715 [2]重庆金佛山喀斯特生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《草业学报》2024年第10期14-27,共14页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金(32201312);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(SWU-KQ22009);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS22200)资助。

摘　　要：姜黄属植物是我国重要的药用草本植物。然而,目前对其在中国的潜在分布规律仍然不清楚。为了研究姜黄属植物在中国当前的潜在空间分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应模式,选取莪术、姜黄、郁金3个最具代表性的姜黄属植物作为研究对象,结合这3种姜黄属植物的现有分布记录和相关的气候、地形、土壤等环境因子,应用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统方法,预测上述3种姜黄属植物在当前和未来气候情景下的潜在适生区。研究结果表明,利用MaxEnt模型对3种姜黄属植物预测结果的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)均大于0.95,预测结果具有较高的精度;3种姜黄属植物目前主要分布在云南、广西、广东、福建、台湾地区、海南等省份,其中姜黄的适生区面积最大,郁金的适生区面积最小;在未来2090s SSP245气候情景下,3种姜黄属植物均表现为向我国东北方向扩张的趋势,适生面积达到最大;在未来2090s SSP370和SSP585气候情景下,3种姜黄属植物仅有小部分地区发生适生区的收缩和扩张;此外,最干季度均温是莪术潜在分布的关键因子,姜黄和郁金受年平均降水量影响最大。综上,3种姜黄属植物主要分布在我国南部,并有向北扩张的趋势,相关保护部门可基于本研究开展姜黄属植物的种植和扩繁工作,有助于提升姜黄属植物的经济和生态效益。Curcuma species are important medicinal herbs in China,and are crucial for the sustainable development of Chinese herbal medicine resources.However,the potential distribution pattern of Cucurma species in China under climate change is still unclear.To study the potential spatial distribution characteristics of Curcuma species under climate change in China,we selected the three most representative species,namely Curcuma phaeocaulis,Curcuma longa,and Curcuma aromatica,for detailed analyses.The MaxEnt model(maximum entropy)and geographic information system(ArcGIS)methods were applied,and along with records of the present distribution of these three Curcuma species and environmental factors in their distribution area such as climate,topography,and soil,were used predict the potential habitat of the three species under current and future climate scenarios.The results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)values of the three Curcuma species predicted by the MaxEnt model were all greater than 0.95,indicating that the prediction results had high accuracy.At present,the three species are mainly distributed in the provinces of Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Taiwan region,and Hainan,with C.longa having the largest area of suitable habitat and C.aromatica having the smallest.During the 2090s,under the SSP245 climate scenario,there is a trend for all three species to expand their distribution towards the northeast in China with the maximum area of suitable habitat.Under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios,only small areas of the three species will undergo contraction and expansion of the fitness zone.The mean temperature of the driest season was identified as the key factor affecting the potential distribution of C.phaeocaulis,while the mean annual precipitation was identified as the key factor affecting the potential distribution of C.longa and C.aromatica.In conclusion,the three species of Curcuma are mainly distributed in southern China and will tend to expand northward under climate c

关 键 词：姜黄属植物 最大熵模型 环境因子 气候变化 潜在分布区 

分 类 号：S567.239[农业科学—中草药栽培]