Impact of EnKF assimilating Himawari-8 all-sky infrared radiance on the forecasting of a warm-sector rainstorm event  

作　　者：Shanshan LOU Lei ZHU Xuexing QIU Guangzhou CHEN Song YUAN Shengnan ZHOU 

机构地区：[1]Anhui Meteorological Observatory,Hefei 230031,China [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME),Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [3]Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center,Hefei 230031,China [4]Shouxian National Climatology Observatory,Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm Eco-Meteorological Experiment Field of CMA,Shouxian National Comprehensive Meteorological Observation Special Experimental Outfield,Shouxian 232200,China [5]Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2024年第10期3110-3127,共18页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Jianghuai Meteorological Joint Project of Anhui Natural Science Foundation (Grant No.2208085UQ12)。

摘　　要：Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.

关 键 词：Ensemble Kalman filter WRF model Himawari-8 All-sky radiance Warm-sector rainstorm 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]