客户到达率分布未知和服务容量可调整的超额预售决策  

Overbooking Strategy with Customer Arrival Rate Distribution Unknown and Service Capacity Adjustable

作　　者：丁雪峰[1] 邢璧轩 DING Xuefeng;XING Bixuan(College of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（理学版）》2024年第4期497-506,共10页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71771139)。

摘　　要：超额预售(简称“超售”)策略是服务企业提高自身利润,降低服务资源浪费的常用收益管理策略。针对客户到达率具体分布未知条件下企业超额预售决策问题,利用鲁棒优化方法构建了相关报童模型,对服务容量可调整的超售决策进行了分析,通过对模型的计算得出了使企业期望利润最大的超售决策组合。结果表明,当服务价格、惩罚成本及客户到达率均值方差满足一定数量关系时,采取超售策略能够使企业获得更多的利润。此外,分布未知情况下的最优决策在客户到达率波动较大时有着更好的效益。The overbooking strategy is a common revenue management strategy for service providers to improve their own profits and reduce the waste of service resources.In this paper,the robust optimization method is employed to construct the relevant newsboy model,aiming at the strategy-making problem of enterprise overbooking in situations where the distribution of customer arrival rates is unknown.The overbooking strategy with adjustable service capacity is analyzed,and the overbooking strategy that maximizes the expected profit of the enterprise is obtained by calculating the model.The results show that overbooking strategy can make the enterprise more profitable when the service price,penalty cost,and the mean-variance of customer arrival rate satisfy a particular quantitative relationship.In addition,the optimal strategy for unknown distribution has better benefits when the customer arrival rate fluctuates wildly.

关 键 词：超额预售 报童模型 分布未知情况 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]