基于DEMATEL-ISM的装配式建筑项目成本风险管理研究  

Research on Cost Risk Management of Prefabricated Construction Projects Based on DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：程子聪 Zicong Cheng(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2024年第5期5168-5175,共8页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：本文研究了基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的装配式建筑项目成本风险管理。随着城市化进程的加快,装配式建筑作为高效、环保的新型建筑方式逐渐受到关注,但其高成本成为市场推广的主要障碍。文章首先分析了装配式建筑成本的构成及主要风险因素,包括设计、生产、运输、施工及运营维护等阶段。通过物理–事理–人理(WSR)系统方法,识别并构建了装配式建筑成本风险因素指标体系。随后,采用DEMATELISM模型,建立了直接影响矩阵,评估各因素间的相互影响关系,并邀请专家进行打分,以确定关键影响因素。研究结果表明,该方法能有效识别装配式建筑成本风险的关键环节,为项目管理者提供决策支持,降低项目成本风险。This paper investigates the cost risk management of prefabricated construction projects based on the DEMATEL-ISM model.With the acceleration of urbanization,prefabricated construction,as an efficient and environmentally friendly new construction method,has gradually attracted attention.However,its high cost has become a major obstacle to market promotion.The article first analyzes the composition and main risk factors of prefabricated construction costs,including design,production,transportation,construction,and operation and maintenance phases.Using the Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR)system methodology,a cost risk factor indicator system for prefabricated construction is identified and constructed.Subsequently,the DEMATEL-ISM model is employed to establish a direct impact matrix,assessing the mutual influence relationships among various factors.Experts are invited to score the factors to determine the key influencing factors.The research results show that this method can effectively identify the critical links in prefabricated construction cost risks,providing decision support for project managers to reduce project cost risks.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 成本风险管理 DEMATEL-ISM WSR系统方法 

分 类 号：TU7[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]