当前一轮“资源民族主义”特点及前景  

The Current Round of Resource Nationalism:Characteristics and Prospects

作　　者：赵宏图[1] 陈文林 ZHAO Hongtu;CHEN Wenlin(China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2024年第9期31-43,共13页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“世界能源结构变化及其地缘政治影响研究”(23BGJ039)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：自2020年前后至今,在拉美左翼上台、资源国债务压力上升、新冠疫情暴发、国际低碳转型提速、俄乌冲突爆发、大国竞争加剧等多重因素影响下,拉美、亚洲和非洲等地“资源民族主义”明显回潮。资源国通过提高特许权使用费和税收、停止或重新谈判现有合同甚至是国有化等政策,加大资源控制力度,抬高外资准入门槛。与过去相比,当前一轮“资源民族主义”的重点领域由石油转向关键矿产,资源国的诸多措施更为温和理性,是在总体欢迎外资的前提下加强对本国资源的管控,反殖民主义色彩减弱,资源国与外资的关系也从零和博弈下的对抗变为合作基础上的利益之争。资源国对外资诸多限制措施的出台,虽有利于增加收益、推动经济增长,但也不可避免制约全球关键矿产等领域投资和产能的增加,迟滞国际能源低碳转型。短期看,本轮“资源民族主义”政策在政治上迎合了资源国国内民族主义情绪,有助于其经济发展和转型;中长期看,“资源民族主义”也将面临越来越大的国内外阻力。In recent years,resource nationalism has been significantly resurgent in Latin America,Asia and Africa,being influenced by multiple factors such as the international low-carbon transition,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and great power competition.This round of resurgence reflects both the cyclical fluctuations of history and many new characteristics of the current era.The dominant focus of this new wave of resource nationalism has shifted from oil and gas to critical minerals,and resource-rich countries have been exerting greater resources control and raising the threshold for foreign investments by raising royalties and taxes,suspending and/or renegotiating existing contracts,and even implementing the state-ownership of the resource.The current round of resource nationalism generally aims to get rid of over-reliance on resource exploitation,strengthen resource sovereignty,control resource flows,and ascend the value chain,so as to pro-mote economic development of resource countries,accelerate industrialization,and expand their influence in the global economy.Compared with the past waves of resource nationalism,many measures taken by the resource-rich countries have recently been more moderate and rational,and most of them have been diversified,strengthening the control of domestic resources on the premise of attracting foreign investments and weakening the anti-colonialism tendency.And,the relationship between the resource-rich countries and foreign investments has changed from a zero-sum game confrontation to a conflict of interests based on cooperation.For those countries,the restriction of foreign investments is conducive to the increase of incomes and economic growth,but it inevitably restricts the increase of investments and production capacity in critical minerals and their related fields around the world,and delays the international low-carbon energy transition.In the short term,the current round of resource nationalism politically caters to the domestic national-ism of resource countries,and to a certain ext

关 键 词：能源转型 “资源民族主义” 关键矿产 国有化 出口限制 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] F062.1[政治法律—政治学]