基于合成控制法与机器学习的新品卷烟投放策略研究  

Research on new cigarette launch strategy based on synthetic control method and machine learning

作　　者：莫玉华 谭茜 古越 邓超[1] 黄飞杰[1] 许良本 MO Yuhua;TAN Qian;GU Yue;DENG Chao;HUANG Feijie;XU Liangben(Internet Research Center,China Tobacco Guangxi Industrial Co.,LTD.,Nanning 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]广西中烟工业有限责任公司,互联网研究中心,南宁市530001

出　　处：《中国烟草学报》2024年第5期92-98,共7页Acta Tabacaria Sinica

基　　金：广西中烟工业有限责任公司项目“数据挖掘对真龙新品在广西市场培育的应用研究”(GXZYCX2021E019)。

摘　　要：目前,新品卷烟投放预测存在数据区间较短、数据波动较大等问题,制约了传统基于时间序列的卷烟投放模型在新品卷烟上的应用。为解决这一问题,创新性地将合成控制法与机器学习模型结合,采用稳定的成熟卷烟产品销量趋势对新品卷烟的销量趋势进行模拟和校准。以广西玉林市18个月卷烟销售数据为研究样本,将真龙(海韵中支)作为研究对象,基于随机森林算法对数据中缺失值进行相应处理后,通过合成控制法计算成熟卷烟产品对新品卷烟的拟合权重。应用效果检验发现,基于长短期记忆模型(LSTM)对新品卷烟预测的准确率仅为33.31%,在加入模型标签体系的多种机器学习模型后,集成学习模型(Weighted Ensemble)算法准确率可达到88.56%。最终,在将合成控制法和多种机器学习模型融合后,算法准确率达到了94.17%。该算法解决了当前新品卷烟销量预测局限性问题,并填补了新品卷烟投放模型的研究空白。At present,new product cigarette launch forecasts are hindered by short data intervals and significant fluctuations,limiting the use of traditional time-series models for new varieties.This paper innovatively combines the synthetic control method with machine learning to simulate and calibrate new cigarette varieties’sales trends using data from mature products.This paper takes 18 months of cigarette sales microdata in Yulin City,Guangxi Province as the research sample,and takes the new product Zhenlong(Haiyun Medium)as the research object.After processing the missing values in the data accordingly based on the random forest algorithm,the fitted weights of mature product cigarettes to new product cigarettes were calculated by the synthetic control method.The application effect test revealed that the LSTM model’s prediction accuracy for new varieties was only 33.31%.In contrast,the Weighted Ensemble algorithm,enhanced with multiple machine learning models,achieved an accuracy of 88.56%.By fusing the synthetic control method with multiple machine learning models,we achieved an algorithm accuracy of 94.17%.This research overcomes limitations in predicting new variety cigarette sales and bridges the gap in new product launch models.

关 键 词：卷烟投放模型 合成控制法 机器学习 模型融合 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] F426.8[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]