中国农户烤烟种植全要素生产率的估计与分析:2004—2020  

Estimation and analysis of total factor productivity of flue-cured tobacco in Chinese farm households:2004-2020

作　　者：罗屹 韩嫣 LUO Yi;HAN Yan(Center for Price Cost Investigation,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100045,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会价格成本调查中心,北京100045 [2]北京石油化工学院经济管理学院,北京102617

出　　处：《中国烟草学报》2024年第5期99-108,共10页Acta Tabacaria Sinica

基　　金：国家发展改革委价格成本调查中心青年人才支持计划(20220610-2)。

摘　　要：研究中国农户烤烟种植全要素增长率及其时序变动趋势,有助于准确判断中国烤烟种植业的可持续发展状况。基于国家发展改革委农产品成本调查数据,本文运用固定效应模型等方法系统估计和分析2004—2020年中国农户烤烟种植全要素生产率。结果表明:第一,2004—2020年中国农户烤烟种植成本上升速度快于产值增长速度,亩均烤烟净利润从273.10元降至64.41元,年均下降8.63%。第二,中国各省农户烤烟种植全要素生产率走势出现分化。其中,湖南、福建、贵州等11省烤烟种植全要素生产率呈现下降走势,河南、四川、云南等9省(区、市)烤烟种植全要素生产率呈现上升走势。第三,全国层面的农户烤烟种植全要素生产率先升后降,最高点位于2008年,样本期内年均下降0.37%。第四,技术进步拉动中国烤烟种植全要素生产率增长,综合技术效率降低导致效率负增长。本研究对于深入理解中国农户烤烟种植投入产出发展变化、出台针对性政策推动烤烟种植高质量发展具有重要意义。Investigating the growth rate of the total factor productivity in tobacco cultivation by Chinese farm households and its temporal change trends can help accurately evaluate the sustainable development status of China's tobacco cultivation industry.Based on the survey data from 20 provinces in China,we analyzed the total factor productivity of flue-cured tobacco from 2004 to 2020.The results show that,first,from 2004 to 2020,the cost of flue-cured tobacco production increased faster than the output value,with the net profit per acre of tobacco decreasing from 273.10 yuan to 64.41 yuan,an average annual decline of 8.63%.Second,the trend of total factor productivity of flue-cured tobacco cultivation varied among different provinces.For instance,11 provinces including Hunan,Fujian,and Guizhou saw a downward trend,while 9 provinces/regions/cities such as Henan,Sichuan,and Yunnan experienced an upward trend.Third,at the national level,the total factor productivity in flue-cured tobacco cultivation showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,with its peak in 2008 and an average annual decrease of 0.37%during the sample period.Fourth,the decomposition of the Malmquist index shows that technological progress has driven the growth of the total factor productivity in China’s flue-cured tobacco cultivation,but the decline in overall technological efficiency led to negative efficiency growth.This research is significant for understanding the input-output development changes of tobacco cultivation by Chinese farm households and for formulating targeted policies to promote high-quality development in tobacco cultivation.

关 键 词：烤烟种植 全要素生产率 农户 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]