基于改进四阶段法的城市货运交通分析和预测模型  

Urban Freight Traffic Analysis and Forecasting Models Based on Improved Four-Stage Method

作　　者：雷雪琪 李春艳 杜华兵 洪玮琪 张建波 赵峰 LEI Xueqi;LI Chunyan;DU Huabing;HONG Weiqi;ZHANG Jianbo;ZHAO Feng(Beijing Transport Institute,Beijing 100073,China;Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102627,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通发展研究院,北京100073 [2]北京建筑大学,北京102627

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2024年第4期32-43,共12页Transport Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(62173167)。

摘　　要：物流基地是城市重要的货物流通转换节点,为明确城市物流特征和货运交通规模,对交通“四阶段法”进行改进优化,并构建城市物流基地货运交通分析与预测模型。首先,提出基于不同货类及车型的现状货运生成量算法和基于规划面积的目标年货运生成量算法。然后,针对物流“输入型”城市的特点,构建ARIMA时间序列模型预测目标年各货类影响因素的特征值,提出物流基地与市内各区之间的货运量吸引力算法。接着,利用多源数据分析和聚类法解析货车时空分布规律及货物出行链特征,并对物流基地的干线及城市运输所用车型进行分类。随后,提出将不同货类货运量转换为不同货车交通量的算法,以及求解单位面积交通发生吸引率的方法。最后,以北京市物流基地为例开展实证研究,分析结果显示:预计到2035年,北京市物流基地的货运量将从现状3344万t/年增长至9000万t/年,交通量将从现状4.4万辆次/d增长至11.5万辆次/d。实证表明,基于货物、货车和出行链特征并考虑货运量到交通量换算的改进四阶段法模型是支撑城市货运交通分析和预测的有效方法。Logistics hubs are important nodes for goods circulation and transformation in a city.In order to clarify urban logistics characteristics and freight traffic scale,the paper improved and optimized the"four stage method"of transportation,and used it to construct a freight traffic analysis and prediction model for urban logistics hubs.Firstly,the current freight generation algorithm was proposed based on different types of goods and lorries,and the calculation method for the target year was given based on the planned area.Secondly,for the logistics"input"city,the ARIMA time series model was constructed to predict the characteristic values of the influencing factors of each goods type in the target year,and an freight attractive algorithm between each logistics hub and various districts within the city was proposed.Thirdly,multi-source data analysis and clustering method were used to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of lorries and the characteristics of goods travel chain,and to classify the types of lorries for urban external and internal transportation of logistics hubs.Fourthly,an algorithm was proposed to convert the freight volume of different types of goods into different types of lorry traffic volumes,as well as a method to solve the generation and attraction rate of traffic per unit area.Finally,taking Beijing logistics hubs as the empirical research object,it was obtained that the freight volume would increase from the current 33.44 million tons per year to 90 million tons per year in 2035,and the traffic volume would increase from the current 44,000 vehicles per day to 115,000 vehicles per day.The results show that it is an effective way to analyze and forecast urban freight traffic by constructing an improved four-stage model based on goods,lorries and the characteristics of travel chains and considering the conversion of freight volume to traffic volume.

关 键 词：物流基地 货运交通模型 四阶段法 货运量 交通量 时空分布规律 北京市 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]