中欧班列主通道白俄罗斯节点运输潜力分析及对策建议  

Analysis of Transport Potential and Suggestions on Countermeasuresfor Belarus Node of the Main Channel of CR Express

作　　者：戴智丞 李得伟[1,2] 叶罗费耶夫·亚历山大·亚历山大耶维奇 何红 吕佳晰 DAI Zhicheng;LI Dewei;ALEKSANDR Aleksandrovich Erofeev;HE Hong;LYU Jiaxi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Frontiers Science Center for Smart High-Speed Railway System,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Belarusian State University of Transport,Gomel 246653,Belarus;School of Transportation and Logistics,Guangzhou Railway Polytechnic,Guangzhou 511300,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学智慧高铁系统前沿科学中心,北京100044 [3]白俄罗斯国立交通大学,戈梅利246653 [4]广州铁路职业技术学院运输物流学院,广东广州511300

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2024年第4期56-67,共12页Transport Research

基　　金：“一带一路”创新人才交流外国专家项目(DL2022104001L);广州市科技计划项目(202201011704)。

摘　　要：为推进中欧班列高质量发展,解决既有研究对于中欧铁路网中白俄罗斯节点运输特征论证不充分的问题,全面分析白俄罗斯这一中欧铁路主通道节点的发展瓶颈和潜力。首先,基于宏观统计数据,采用统计分析方法、数据包络分析方法和参数预测模型,从货运量、货运车辆拥有量、机车拥有量、线路运营里程和通过能力等发展指标入手,分析白俄罗斯铁路运输在货运组织、运力资源配置等方面的时序特征和发展趋势。之后,在供给侧,从投入和产出两个维度划分宏观运营指标,并利用数据包络分析法,定量分析白俄罗斯铁路的投入冗余和产出不足情况,评估该节点的运输潜力;在需求侧,结合中欧班列既有开行数据、短期预测结果以及白俄罗斯铁路实际生产现状,分析未来可能出现运能短板的瓶颈区段。基于此,从中欧班列开行视角提出白俄罗斯铁路运营改进建议。最后,基于对白俄罗斯铁路运营现状和未来发展潜力的分析,提出我国应扩大面向白俄罗斯铁路建设投资、强化货运流程环节高效对接和共同制定统一的运输标准和程序等发展对策,为我国中欧班列开行提供保障,促进中国与欧洲国家的交流和共同发展。In order to promote the high-quality development of CR(China Railway)Express,solve the problem of insufficient research on the transportation characteristics of the Belarus section of the China-Europe railway network,the paper comprehensively analyzed the development bottlenecks and potential of the Belarus node in the main channel of the China-Europe railway.Firstly,based on macro statistical data,the paper used statistical analysis methods,data envelopment analysis methods,and parameter prediction models to obtain development indicators such as freight volume,the number of freight vehicles and locomotives,operating mileage,and throughput capacity.Based on the above indicators,the temporal characteristics and development trends of Belarus railway transport in freight organization,capacity resource allocation and other aspects were analyzed.Subsequently,on the supply side,macro operational indicators were divided from the dimensions of input and output,and the data envelopment analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the input redundancy and output deficiency of Belarus railway,and evaluate the transport potential of the node;On the demand side,based on the existing operation data and short-term forecast results of CR Express,as well as the actual production status of Belarus railway,the bottleneck sections where there may be a shortage of transportation capacity in the future were analyzed.Based on this,suggestions for improving the operation of Belarus railway were proposed from the perspective of the operation of CR Express.Finally,based on the analysis of the current operation status and future development potential of Belarus railway,it was proposed that China should expand investment in Belarus railway construction,strengthen efficient integration of freight processes,and jointly formulate unified transport standards and procedures,so as to provide guarantees for the operation of CR Express and promote China-Europe exchanges and common development.

关 键 词：中欧班列 国际供应链 运输潜力 运力资源配置 数据包络分析 

分 类 号：U297.9[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]