基于多层次动态评价模型的长三角地区省域交通物流发展水平评价  

Provincial Transportation Logistics Development Level Evaluation inYangtze River Delta Based on Multi-Level Dynamic Evaluation Model

作　　者：郎坤 牛春慧 曾苏豫 李英华 LANG Kun;NIU Chunhui;ZENG Suyu;LI Yinghua(School of Maritime Economics and Management of Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2024年第4期125-136,共12页Transport Research

摘　　要：为推进长三角地区省域交通物流高质量发展,提出一种能够客观评价交通物流动态发展水平的方法。首先,基于国家的可持续发展战略和“双碳”目标导向,为推动交通物流的绿色可持续发展,从交通物流发展实力与发展潜力两方面选取22个指标构建评价指标体系。然后,考虑到区域交通物流发展水平具有动态演化特征,针对交通物流发展这一动态的系统工程问题,提出一种能有效捕捉时序数据信息的多层次动态评价模型,实现对交通物流发展水平的科学评价,对区域总体发展趋势、各省域发展趋势及各省之间发展水平差异性的分析,以及对未来发展趋势的预测及其动态演化规律的分析。为有效捕捉交通物流发展水平的动态演化特征,分别采用非线性规划法和最大化总离差平方和的思想对不同时期历史数据的重要性差异和不同指标因素的重要性差异进行量化处理,进而通过对数据进行自下而上的逐层加工处理确定各省交通物流发展水平的综合评价值,以提高评价结果的客观性和科学有效性;并利用基尼系数对各省份物流发展水平的差异进行分析,利用Markov链实现对区域交通物流发展水平动态演进趋势的预测和分析。最后,基于2018—2022年长三角地区4个省级行政区交通物流发展情况统计数据进行实例分析。结果表明:提升绿色化发展潜力对于提高交通物流发展水平具有重要作用;该地区的交通物流发展水平总体呈上升趋势;在动态演进过程中,不同省份间的发展水平差异呈扩大趋势。因此,为提高长三角地区交通物流的发展质量,应加速推进各省域交通物流的绿色化转型,从全局视角出发做好统筹发展规划,实现各省域的均衡协调发展。To promote the high-quality development of provincial transportation logistics in Yangtze River Delta,a method was proposed to evaluate the dynamic development level of the transportation logistics objectively.Firstly,based on the national strategy of sustainable development and the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal orientation,in order to promote the green and sustainable development of transportation logistics,22 indicators were selected from the perspectives of transportation logistics development strength and development potential to construct an evaluation index system.Then,considering that the regional transportation logistics development level has dynamic evolution characteristics,aiming at the dynamic system engineering problem of transportation logistics development,a multi-level dynamic evaluation model that could effectively capture the time series data information was proposed.It could realize the scientific evaluation of the development level of transportation logistics,the analysis of the overall regional development trend,the development trend of provinces,and the differences of development level among provinces,as well as the prediction of the future development trend and the analysis of its dynamic evolution rules.In order to capture the dynamic evolution characteristics of transportation logistics development level effectively,the nonlinear programming method and the idea of maximizing the total squared deviation were used to quantify the differences in the importance of data at different times and the differences in the importance of different factors,respectively,to improve the objectivity and scientific validity of the evaluation results.And the comprehensive evaluation value of the transportation logistics development level of each province was determined by processing the data from bottom to top.Then,the Gini coefficient was applied to analyze the difference of logistics development level among provinces and the Markov Chain was used to predict the dynamic evolution trend of transpo

关 键 词：动态评价 交通物流发展水平 时间序列 Dagum基尼系数 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程] F252[经济管理—国民经济]