既有砌体冻融寿命贝叶斯预测  

Prediction of Freeze-Thaw Life of Existing Masonry by Bayesian Method

作　　者：倪玉双 谭金玉 NI Yushuang;TAN Jinyu(School of Civil Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期438-443,共6页Journal of Shenyang University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51808054)。

摘　　要：为了探究砌体冻融耐久性寿命,以强度损失率为损伤指标建立砌体材料冻融损伤的耐久性模型,计算耐久性损伤可靠指标。通过可靠指标划分砌体材料的冻融损伤耐久性等级,计算得到各等级先验耐久性寿命预测曲线,结合检测信息通过贝叶斯方法更新预测曲线。结果表明,后验预测模型结合了先验信息和检测信息,预测结果合理。In order to explore the freeze-thaw durability life of masonry,a durability model of freeze-thaw damage of masonry materials was established with the strength loss rate as the damage index,the reliability index of durability damage was calculated.The freeze-thaw damage durability grade of masonry materials was divided by reliable indicators,and the prior durability life prediction curves of each grade were calculated,and the prediction curves were updated by Bayesian method based on the detection information.The results show that the posterior prediction model combines the prior information and the detection information,and the prediction results are reasonable.

关 键 词：既有砌体 贝叶斯方法 可靠指标 冻融耐久性 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TU362[建筑科学—结构工程]