CWM-CM模型在采空区遗煤自燃风险评价中的应用  

Application of CWM-CM Model in Risk Assessment of Coal Spontaneous Combustion in Goaf

作　　者：李博 LI Bo(Tongmei Datang Tashan Coal Mine Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]同煤大唐塔山煤矿有限公司

出　　处：《现代矿业》2024年第9期218-222,226,共6页Modern Mining

摘　　要：为更科学分析遗煤自燃危险性状态,建立基于组合赋权法-正态云模型(CWM-CM模型)进行采空区遗煤自燃风险评价。首先,选取了8个典型性影响因素,构建采空区遗煤自燃风险评价体系;其次,利用G1-云模型、改进CRITIC-云模型和CWM-CM模型,计算指标综合权重,并通过计算综合确定度,以最大隶属度为判别准则,综合评估风险等级;最后,应用该模型对山西省某煤矿3个采空区遗煤自燃风险实例分析,并与物元可拓和未确知测度模型评估结果比较。结果显示:3个采空区遗煤自燃风险均为易燃等级,3种模型评估结果完全一致,验证了该模型在采空区遗煤自燃风险评价方面具有可行性和适用性,可为遗煤自燃风险评估提供新思路。In order to analyze the state of spontaneous combustion risk of abandoned coal more scien-tifically,a combined weighting method-normal cloud model(CWM-CM model)is established to evaluate the risk of spontaneous combustion of abandoned coal in goaf.Firstly,8 typical influencing factors are se-lected to construct a risk assessment system for spontaneous combustion of coal in goaf.Secondly,the G1-cloud model,improved critical-cloud model and CWM-CM model are used to calculate the comprehensive weight of indicators,and the maximum membership degree is used as the criterion to evaluate the risk level comprehensively.Finally,the model is used to analyze the spontaneous combustion risk of coal in 3 goaf ar-eas of a coal mine in Shanxi Province,and compared with the evaluation results of mature-element exten-sion and unascertained measurement model.The results show that the spontaneous combustion risk of the abandoned coal in the three goaf areas is flammable,and the evaluation results of the three models are com-pletely consistent,which verifies the feasibility and applicability of the model in the spontaneous combus-tion risk assessment of the abandoned coal in the goaf area,and can provide a new idea for the spontaneous combustion risk assessment of the abandoned coal.

关 键 词：遗煤自燃 CWM-CM模型 云模型 

分 类 号：TD752.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]