“意愿”与“能力”视角下阿拉伯国家能源转型差异研究  

Disparities in Energy Transition in Arab Countries from the Perspective of“Willingness”and“Capability”

作　　者：赵跃晨 姜文静 ZHAO Yuechen;JIANG Wenjing(Yunnan University Institute of International Relations)

机构地区：[1]云南大学“一带一路”研究院、国际关系研究院,昆明650000 [2]云南大学国际关系研究院,昆明650000

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2024年第5期56-80,158,共26页Arab World Studies

基　　金：2023年度国家社科基金青年项目“中国与阿拉伯国家构建能源立体合作新格局的挑战与路径研究”(23CGJ030)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：阿拉伯国家能源转型已走到“十字路口”。作为全球能源体系的重要组成部分,阿拉伯国家努力减少对化石能源的依赖,此举既关乎自身前途命运,又牵动着全球能源格局。本文在分析全球能源转型规律和机制的基础上,从“转型意愿”与“转型能力”两个维度分析阿拉伯国家在减少对化石能源依赖过程中步伐不一致的原因。通过数据分析发现,阿拉伯油气出口国的能源转型呈现“进取”和“回流”的趋势,油气进口国呈现“发展”与“滞缓”的趋势。尽管阿拉伯国家由于资源禀赋差异而呈现出不同的转型路径,但其背后的驱动机制却是相似的。只有当“转型意愿”与“转型能力”相匹配时,能源转型才能呈现向好趋势。为验证以上假设,本文选取有代表性的油气出口国和油气进口国进行求异比较研究,相关结果支持以上假设的同时,回溯了阻滞阿拉伯国家构建清洁低碳能源结构的根源,也为中国与阿拉伯国家打造互惠互利、长期友好的能源战略伙伴关系提供理论支撑。Arab countries have reached a“crossroad”in energy transformation.As a key component of the global energy system,Arab countries are striving to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels,and this not only concerns their own future and destiny but also influences the global energy landscape.Based on an analysis of global energy transition patterns and mechanisms,the paper proposes the causes of the disparities in energy transition from the perspective of“willingness”and“capability”in Arab Countries.Through data analysis,it was found that oil and gas exporter from Arab countries presents trends of“advancement”and“regression”,while oil and gas importer from Arab countries exhibits trends of“development”and“stagnation”.Although Arab countries have taken different transformation paths due to differences in resource endowments,the driving mechanisms behind them are similar.When the“willingness”and“capability”match,the energy transition shows positive trends and vice versa.To validate this hypothesis,the paper conducts a comparative analysis of representative oil and gas exporter and importer in Arab region.The findings substantiate the aforementioned hypothesis while elucidating the underlying factors that impede Arab nations from establishing a clean and low-carbon energy framework.Moreover,the study provides theoretical support for fostering a mutually beneficial and long-term strategic energy partnership between China and Arab countries.

关 键 词：阿拉伯国家 能源转型 “转型意愿” “转型能力” 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]