摇摆的平衡:土耳其与叙利亚跨界河流水博弈分析  

Swinging Balance:Analysis of Transboundary Water Competition Between Turkey and Syria

作　　者：章捷莹 ZHANG Jieying(School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2024年第5期81-105,158,159,共27页Arab World Studies

基　　金：2022年度教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“百年变局下中东治理的大国作用与影响研究”(22JJD81004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中东地区水资源短缺与分配不均导致跨界河流治理面临难题,甚至出现安全化和政治化趋势。土耳其与叙利亚共享幼发拉底河与阿西河水资源,却并未爆发大规模军事冲突,其主要原因是遵循国家动机、策略选择与差异化互动行为所致。在土耳其与叙利亚的水博弈互动中,流域位置一定程度上影响了国家的动机选择。相对上游国家倾向于持有欲望动机,采取投机化的策略行为;相对下游国家则兼具恐惧与情感动机,趋于执行安全化与社会化的互动策略。两国的动机与策略决定了竞合博弈的互动过程与结果,它并非完全冲突或完全合作,而是竞争与合作并存。土耳其与叙利亚在两条河流流域中大致实现了优势角色的互换,在动机与策略选择上形成了动态博弈,在互动结果上呈现出一种摇摆的平衡。对土叙两国水博弈的机制性讨论为跨界河流互动提供了可供借鉴的思考路径。Water scarcity and uneven distribution in the Middle East lead to challenges in managing transboundary rivers,even resulting in securitization and politicization trends.Turkey and Syria share the Euphrates and Orontes rivers,but have not experienced large-scale military conflicts.The primary reason is the explanation logic of national motives,strategic choices,and differentiated interaction behaviors.In the interactions between Turkey and Syria,the basin location somewhat affects the country's motive choices.The relatively upstream country tends to have a desire-driven motive and adopts opportunistic strategic behavior,while the downstream country exhibits a mix of fear and emotional motives,leaning towards securitization and socialization interaction strategies.The motives and strategies of both countries determine the competitive-cooperative game process and results,which are neither entirely conflictual nor entirely cooperative,but rather a coexistence of competition and cooperation.Turkey and Syria have roughly swapped dominant roles in the two river basins,forming a dynamic game in terms of motive and strategy choices,and presenting a swinging balance in interaction results.Discussing the mechanisms of the water competition between Turkey and Syria can provide reference pathways for thinking about transboundary river interactions.

关 键 词：土耳其 叙利亚 跨界河流 幼发拉底河 阿西河 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]