奥斯曼帝国的“最后一搏”:基于战略决策理论的解读  

The Last Efforts to Save the Ottoman Empire:An Interpretation Based on the Theory of Strategic Decision Making

作　　者：周东辰 王黎 ZHOU Dongchen;WANG Li(School of History and Culture,Qufu Normal University;School of Public Diplomacy,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学历史文化学院,曲阜273100 [2]常州大学史良法学院,常州213100

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2024年第5期132-155,160,共25页Arab World Studies

基　　金：2022年度国家社会科学重大项目“世界历史上主要文明之间的比较、互动与互鉴研究”(22&ZD249)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：关于奥斯曼帝国为何做出参加一战的决策及其战败解体的历史影响的探讨,已持续逾百年。近年来,学术界尝试运用跨学科方法和不断更新的史料,从多元视角解读奥斯曼帝国加入一战的战略决策、影响帝国做出参战决策的国内外因素、帝国解体带来的影响以及战后土耳其共和国与欧洲关系等问题。相关论争的焦点在于,究竟是何种关键因素促使奥斯曼决策者深信,只有通过与德国结盟才最有可能保证帝国避免被沙俄肢解的厄运;如果奥斯曼帝国以谋求“中立”为底线,并且不懈地通过外交途径与协约国达成某种妥协,是否能够避免加入德奥阵营,进而挽救帝国解体的命运。本文结合学界最新的研究成果,运用克劳塞维茨的相关战略决策理论,对奥斯曼帝国决策者在战略判断过程中的心理活动进行实证主义分析,尝试为分析一战前奥斯曼帝国战略决策误判的原因提供新的视角。Over the past century,there have been plenty of discussions of the strategic decision by the Ottoman Empire and its collapse at the end of the war.Recently,scholars have tried to use interdisciplinary methodologies and the renewed materials to interpret from the plural perspectives how the ruling elite of the Empire made such a fatal decision to enter the WWI which resulted in its final demise.They aim to examine the key elements in their final decision-making and the consequences of the fall of the Ottoman Empire and its negative impacts on the Republic of Turkey which stood on the ruins of the old regime.The controversy centers on the key factors that convinced the Ottoman decision-makers that an alliance with Germany was the most likely way to ensure that the empire would not be dismembered by Tsarist Russia,and whether the Ottoman Empire could have avoided joining the German-Austrian camp and thus saved itself from the war if it had taken“neutrality”as the bottom line and relentlessly pursued diplomacy to reach some kind of a compromise with the Allied Powers.In view of this,this paper will combine the latest research results in the academic world,apply Clausewitz's relevant strategic decision-making theories,and carry out a positivist analysis of the psychological activities of Ottoman decision-makers in the process of strategic judgment,in an attempt to analyze the root causes of the miscalculation of Ottoman strategic decision-making from a new perspective.

关 键 词：奥斯曼帝国 一战 战略决策 克劳塞维茨 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]