塔里木河流域植被动态及潜在因素驱动机制  

Vegetation Dynamics and Potential Factors Driving Mechanisms in the Tarim River Basin

作　　者：岳胜如 王伦澈 曹茜[1] 孙嘉[1] Yue Shengru;Wang Lunche;Cao Qian;Sun Jia(School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;College of Hydraulic and Architecture Engineering,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430078 [2]塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《地球科学》2024年第9期3399-3410,共12页Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(NoS.41975044,42001314).

摘　　要：塔里木河流域气候极端干旱,探究该区域植被动态特征并定量评价潜在驱动因素的作用强度对维持生态系统功能、实现可持续发展至关重要.基于长时间序列NDVI数据集、气候数据、背景数据及土地利用数据,探究了塔里木河流域2000-2020年植被时空变化趋势和空间自相关性,并利用地理探测器定量评估了潜在驱动因素对NDVI变化的作用强度.结果发现:2000-2020年平均NDVI为0.159,52.63%的区域呈显著增长趋势,增长速率为0.02/10a,NDVI的全局莫兰指数呈波动上升趋势,表现为空间集聚性.土地利用转化、土壤类型、距人造地表距离是塔里木河流域植被变化的主要驱动因素,对NDVI变化的解释力分别为22.20%、8.57%、8.28%.降水是塔里木河流域北部的主导气候因素,气温在西部和南部对NDVI变化的解释力更强,距冰川和积雪的距离是影响NDVI变化不可忽略的因素.任意两因素的交互作用可以提高对NDVI变化的解释力,其中在流域尺度上土地利用转化∩土壤类型(q=29.44%)解释力最强,而在子流域尺度上,解释力最强的交互组合及强度存在差异.本文结果有助于提高对塔里木河流域NDVI变化机制的认识,为干旱半干旱地区生态保护提供科学依据.Given the extreme aridity of the Tarim River basin,it is critical to explore the characteristics of vegetation dynamics in the region and to quantitatively evaluate the strength of potential drivers to maintain ecosystem function and achieve sustainable development.The spatial and temporal trends and spatial autocorrelation of vegetation cover in the Tarim River basin from 2000 to 2020 are explored,based on long time series NDVI datasets,climate data,background data and land use data,and the strength of potential driving factors on NDVI changes is quantitatively assessed,using geographical detector.It is found that the average NDVI from 2000 to 2020 was 0.159,and 52.63% of the area showed a significant growth trend with a growth rate of 0.02/10a,and the global Moran’s index of NDVI showed a fluctuating upward trend and exhibited a spatial agglomeration.Land use conversion,soil type,and distance from the man-made surface were the main driving factors of vegetation change in the Tarim River basin,with explanatory power of 22.20%,8.57%,and 8.28%for NDVI change,respectively.Precipitation is the dominant climatic factor in the northern part of the Tarim River basin,temperature has a stronger explanatory power for NDVI changes in the west and south,and distance to glaciers and snow is a factor affecting NDVI changes that cannot be ignored.The interaction of any two factors can improve the explanatory power of NDVI changes,among which the strongest explanatory power is found in land use conversion∩soil type(q=29.44%)at the watershed scale,while there are differences in the combination and intensity of the strongest explanatory interactions at the sub-basin scale.The results help to improve the understanding of NDVI change mechanisms in the Tarim River basin and provide a scientific basis for ecological conservation in arid and semi-arid regions.

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 NDVI 地理探测器 驱动因素 植被 气候变化. 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]