2010-2021年成都市新报告MSM艾滋病人群的空间聚集性分析  

Analysis of spatialaggregation of newly reported MSM HIVcases i Chengdu from 2010 to 2021

作　　者：施雅莹[1] 朱彦锋 周子慧 刘芳[1] 徐菁佩 代珍[1] 王亮[1] SHI Ya-ying;ZHU Yan-feng;ZHOU Zi-hui;LIU Fang;XU Jing-pei;DAI Zhen;WANG Liang(Department of Sexually Transmitted Diseases and HIV Prevention and Control,Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科,四川成都610041 [2]成都医学院公共卫生学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第19期3489-3494,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 了解成都市艾滋病男男性行为(MSM)人群病例2010-2021年空间聚集变化,为MSM病例区域化防控提供科学依据。方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统,运用Arc GIS 10.6软件开展时空自相关分析及空间聚集性分析,Sa TScan软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 成都市同性传播病例2010-2015年年均增长率27.41%,2015-2021年年均增长率为-5.03%。艾滋病疫情涉及370个乡镇/街道,存在空间聚集性,疫情集中在中心城区,随时间推移东北部地区向东南方向扩散、西南部地区向西南和南面扩散、西北部地区向北扩散。热点区域与聚集情况类似。时空扫描分析显示,2013-2018年聚集区域主要为中心城区的40个街道。结论 2010-2021年期间成都市MSM人群艾滋病疫情呈先快速增长后缓慢下降的趋势,空间分布上呈现明显的不均衡性,疫情从中心城区向近郊区扩散,需加大对学校和流动人口聚集区域的艾滋病宣传力度。Objective To understand the changes in spatial aggregation of HIV cases among men who have sex with men(MSM)in Chengdu from 2010 to 2021,providing a scientific basis for the regional prevention and control of MSM cases.Methods Data were collected from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Spatial-temporal auto-correlation and aggregation analyses were conducted using ArcGIS 10.6 software,while StatsCan software was utilized for spa-tial-temporal scanning analysis.Results The average annual growth rate of homosexual transmission cases in Chengdu was 27.41%from 2010 to 2015 and-5.03%from 2015 to 2021.The HIV epidemic affected 370 towns/street areas,demonstrating spatial aggregation,with the epidemic concentrated in the central urban area.Over time,the northeastern region spread south-east,the southwestern area expanded southwest and south,and the northwestern region spread northward.The hotspot areas exhibited similar aggregation patterns.Spatial-temporal scanning analysis indicated that from 2013 to 2018,the primary ag-gregation areas comprised 40 streets in the central urban area.Conclusion During the period from 2010 to 2021,the trend of the HIV epidemic among MSM in Chengdu showed a rapid increase followed by a slow decline.The spatial distribution ex-hibited significant imbalances,with the epidemic spreading from the central urban area to the suburban areas.Increased ef-forts are needed to enhance HIV awareness in schools and areas with concentrated mobile populations.

关 键 词：艾滋病 MSM人群 空间聚集 时空扫描 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]