雅安地区监测井水位预测效能对比研究  

Comparative Study on the Prediction Efficiency of Monitoring Well Water Level in Ya'an Area

作　　者：鲁明贵 谷洪彪 杨耀[2] 芮雪莲 许多湛 马艺宁 张文旭 迟宝明[3,4] LU Ming-gui;GU Hong-biao;YANG Yao;RUI Xue-lian;XU Duo-zhan;MA Yi-ning;ZHANG Wen-xu;CHI Bao-ming(School of Transportation Engineering,Nanjing University of Technology,Nanjing 210o09,China;Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu,610041,China;College of Disaster Prevention Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,China;Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Disaster Mechanism and Risk Monitoring in Hebei Province,Sanhe 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学交通运输工程学院,江苏南京210009 [2]四川省地震局,四川成都610041 [3]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201 [4]河北省资源环境灾变机理及风险监控重点实验室,河北三河065201

出　　处：《地震》2024年第3期215-231,共17页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42372282)。

摘　　要：为提高监测井水位映震效果的判别准确度并提升预测效能,本文运用不同方法对雅安地区两条断裂附近的6口监测井水位的映震效果开展了对比判别研究。首先,使用差分法对监测井水位数据进行处理和分析。然后,将水位数据与区域地震活动性的两种参数(能级和最大震级)相结合,分析区域地震活动性与水位波动的关系。接着,在时域和频域两个层面对该组合序列进行分析处理。最后,采用Molchan图表法检验5种方法的预测效能,并选出最佳处理方法及断裂附近预测效能最优的监测井。结果表明:水位与地震活动性参数结合处理相比单独使用水位差分法具有优势,前者能够准确排除地震活动性对水位异常的干扰。6口监测井的最优预测方法各不相同,最优预测天数均在60 d内。通过比较监测井水位对地震的预测效能检验结果,确定了两条断裂区域预测效能最优的监测井。虽然水位与地震活动性两种参数结合处理并不适用于所有监测井,但该方法能够体现水位受地震活动性影响的程度。To improve the accuracy of discriminating the seismic response of monitoring well water levels and enhance prediction efficiency,this paper conducts a comparative study using different methods on the seismic response of water level in 6 monitoring wells near two faults in the Ya'an area.First,the difference method is used to process and ana-lyze the water level data.Then,the water level data is combined with two parameters of regional seismic activity(energy level and maximum magnitude)to analyze the relationship between regional seismic activity and water level fluctuations.Subsequently,the combined sequence was analyzed and processed in both the time domain and frequency domain.Fi-nally,the prediction efficiency of five methods were tested using the Molchan chart meth-od,and the optimal processing method and the monitoring well with the best prediction ef-ficiency near the faults was identified.The results show that the combination of water lev-el and seismic activity parameters has advantages over using the water level difference method alone,as the former can accurately eliminate the abnormal interference of seismic activity to water level.The optimal prediction methods of the six monitoring wells vary,with the optimal prediction days being within 60 days.Additionally,the study identifies the monitoring wells with the optimal prediction efficiency in the fault areas.While the combination of water level and seismic activity parameters is not universally applicable to all monitoring wells,this method can effectively reflect the extent to which water level are influenced by seismic activity.

关 键 词：井水位前兆 地震活动性 水位数据处理 Molchan图表法 预测效能 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]