基于中断时间序列分析某医院门诊量变化  

Change of the number of outpatient visits in a hospital based on interrupted time-series analysis

作　　者：陈慧 于蕾[3] 李瑞锐 丁莉莉 李变 于陆开 程晓庆 CHEN Hui;YU Lei;LI Rui-rui;DING Li-li;LI Bian;YU Lu-kai;CHENG Xiao-qing(Suqian Municipal First People′s Hospital,Jiangsu Suqian 223800,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]宿迁市第一人民医院,江苏宿迁223800 [2]江苏省现场流行病学培训项目 [3]宿迁市疾病预防控制中心 [4]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2024年第4期490-492,517,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江苏省宿迁市指导性科技计划项目(Z2022083)。

摘　　要：目的评价新型冠状病毒感染疫情对某医院门诊量的影响。方法收集2018年1月至2022年12月某医院门诊量较大的10个代表性科室门诊量数据,采用中断时间序列分析方法(interrupted time series analysis,ITSA)分析各科室门诊量的变化趋势。结果第一中断点,7个科室瞬时门诊量降低,降幅由高到低分别为儿科(β_(2)=-2831.36)、普通外科(β_(2)=-877.32)、皮肤科(β_(2)=-838.33)、骨科(β_(2)=-569.82)、产科(β_(2)=-476.25)、呼吸内科(β_(2)=-304.79)、消化内科(β_(2)=-294.36);感染病科瞬时门诊量增高(β_(2)=2169.04);对妇科、肾内科门诊量影响无统计学意义(P值均>0.05)。第二中断点,有4个科室瞬时门诊量降低,降幅由高到低分别为感染病科(β_(2)=-5158.29)、儿科(β_(2)=-3695.49)、肾内科(β_(2)=-1308.83)、呼吸内科(β_(2)=-1152.95);感染病科(β5=311.07,P<0.05)、儿科(β5=195.99,P<0.05)、呼吸内科(β5=142.79,P<0.05),在第二中断点后月门诊量呈现上升趋势且增长速度有所加快。结论第一中断点对该医院门诊量影响较大,第二中断点影响相对较小,且部分门诊量反弹较为明显。疫情暴发对医疗资源配置和疫情防控工作有较大挑战。Objective To examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the number of outpatient visits in a hospital.Methods Number of outpatient visits were collected from 10 departments of a hospital with high number of outpatient visits during the period from January 2018 through December 2022,and the trends in numbers of outpatient visits were analyzed using interrupted time-series analysis.Results In the first break point,the number of outpatient visits reduced instantaneously in 7 departments,with the largest reduction seen in Department of Pediatrics(β_(2)=-2831.36),followed by in Department of General Surgery(β_(2)=-877.32),Department of Dermatology(β_(2)=-838.33),Department of Orthopedics(β_(2)=-569.82),Department of Obstetrics(β_(2)=-476.25),Department of Respiratory Medicine(β_(2)=-304.79)and Department of Gastroenterology(β_(2)=-294.36),and the number of outpatient visits increased instantaneously in Department of Infectious Diseases(β_(2)=2169.04);however,the COVID-19 pandemic had no significant impact on numbers of outpatients visits in Department of Gynecology or Nephrology(both P values>0.05).In the second break point,the number of outpatient visits reduced instantaneously in 4 departments,with the largest reduction seen in Department of Infectious Diseases(β_(2)=-5158.29),followed by in Department of Pediatrics(β_(2)=-3695.49),Department of Nephrology(β_(2)=-1308.83)and Department of Respiratory Medicine(β_(2)=-1152.95),and the number of monthly outpatient visits appeared a tendency towards a rise in Department of Infectious Diseases(β_5=311.07,P<0.05),Department of Pediatrics(β_5=195.99,P<0.05)and Department of Respiratory Medicine(β_5=142.79,P<0.05)after the second break point.Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic had a remarkable impact on the number of outpatient visits in the hospital at the first break point,and had a minor impact at the second break point,with remarkable rebounding in numbers of outpatient visits in some departments.The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major challenge to allocation o

关 键 词：中断时间序列 突发公共卫生事件 门诊量 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]