基于分钟级大气可降水量的降水可预报性探究  

Research on the predictability of precipitation based on minute level perceptible water vapor

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作  者:林晓萌 刘一玮 陈宏[3,4] 董畅 LIN Xiaomeng;LIU Yiwei;CHEN Hong;DONG Chang(Tianjin Key Laboratory of Oceanic Meteorology,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Meteorological Observatory,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Weather Modification Office,Tianjin 300074,China;Key Laboratory of Hydro-meteorology in China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区:[1]天津市海洋气象重点实验室,天津300074 [2]天津市气象台,天津300074 [3]天津市人工影响天气办公室,天津300074 [4]中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京100081

出  处:《气象科学》2024年第4期684-690,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基  金:中国气象局预报员专项(FPZJ2023-009,FPZJ2023-005);中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题资助项目(23SWQXM005);环渤海区域海洋气象科技协同创新项目(QYXM202314)。

摘  要:为弥补常规探空信息时空密度不足及新型观测资料准确度低的问题,本文利用地基遥感设备(风廓线雷达和微波辐射计)数据及地面自动站数据构建了本地比湿垂直廓线;旨在探究不同降水类型下大气可降水量的变化趋势相对实况降水的时间提前量和量级相关性,利用比湿廓线计算了大气可降水量(Perceptible Water,PW)。结果表明:超过80%的降水过程在降水发生前存在PW急升的情况;PW、ΔPW对降水开始及峰值具备时间节点的可预报性,PW达到峰值后2 h内出现降水的可能性最大;ΔPW峰值与雨强峰值量级呈正相关性,二者相关系数为0.77。初步研究表明,高分辨率的大气可降水量信息可作为短期临近预报分析的序列资料,可为降水预报时间和量级的判断提供依据。The local specific humidity profile was constructed by using ground-based remote sensing equipment,which contains wind profile radar and microwave radiometer data and AWS(Automatic Weather Station)to make up for the insufficient space-time density of conventional radiosonde information and the low accuracy of new observation data.Atmospheric Perceptible Water(PW)was calculated by using the specific humidity profile,aiming to explore the time lead and magnitude correlation between the variation trend of PW and actual precipitation under different precipitation types.Results show that:(1)more than 80%of precipitation processes have PW surge before precipitation.(2)PW andΔPW have the predictability of time node for the beginning and peak of precipitation,and the precipitation is most likely to occur within two hours after PW reaches the peak.(3)The peak value ofΔPW is positively correlated with the peak value of rainfall intensity,and the correlation coefficient is 0.77.The preliminary study shows that the high resolution information of PW can be used as the sequence data of short-term forecast analysis,and can be used as the reference for quantitative judgment of precipitation forecast.

关 键 词:风廓线雷达 微波辐射计 大气可降水量 

分 类 号:P407[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.6

 

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